کاربرد تئوری بازی در تخصیص بهینه منابع آب منطقه سیستان تحت شرایط خشکسالی با راهبرد کم‌آبیاری

محورهای موضوعی : برگرفته از پایان نامه

زهرا غفاری ¹ , علی سردارشهرکی ² , آرش غفاری مقدم ³

1 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پژوهشکده کشاورزی، پژوهشگاه زابل، زابل،ایران
2 - دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
3 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی کامپیوتر، دانشگاه هاتف، زاهدان، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/03/29 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/11/12 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/09/08

کلید واژه: استاکلبرگ, نیاز آبی, الگوریتم ژنتیک, تخصیص آب, بازار آب ,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه: با توجه به خشک‌سالی‌های فراوان، معمولاً امکان افزایش تخصیص آب وجود ندارد و بنابراین عامل محدودکننده حجم آب می‌باشد. با توجه به محدودیت منابع آب استفاده از تکنیک‎های مناسب جهت بهینه سازی تخصیص آب به محصولات مختلف می‎تواند راهگشا باشد. استفاده از روش‎های کم‎آبیاری راهبردی بهینه جهت مقابله با بحران کم‎آبی می‎باشد.

 روش­: در مطالعه حاضر اثرات کم‎آبیاری بر تخصیص آب بین محصولات و مناطق، سود سیستم، مبادله آب بین مناطق بررسی شده است. برای این منظور از مدل تعادلی استاکلبرگ- نش- کورنو با هدف تخصیص آب بین مناطق مختلف تحت آبیاری در سطح رهبر و تخصیص آب بین محصولات مختلف در سطح پیرو در شرایطی که بازار آب شکل بگیرد و تاکید بر کم‎آبیاری انجام شده است. در این مطالعه سه سناریو 5 درصد کم‎آبیاری، 10 درصد کم‎آبیاری و 15 درصد کم‎آبیاری جهت مقابله با شرایط خشکسالی در منطقه سیستان در نظر گرفته شده است.

یافته­ ها: نتایج حاصل نشان داد در شرایطی که آبیاری کامل انجام شود بیشترین آب به محصول خربزه و کمترین اب به محصول گندم اختصاص یافته است و سود حاصل در این حالت 10¹¹×71/2 ریال می‏باشد که با اعمال سناریوهای کم‎آبیاری میزان سود افزایش خواهد یافت. مقدار شاخص نابرابری تخصیص در آب بدست آمده در این سناریو 0334/0می‏باشد که مقدار این شاخص نزدیک به صفر می‏باشد و نشان می‎دهد تخصیص آب بین مناطق عادلانه بوده است. در بین محصولات بیشترین آب به محصول خربزه و کمترین آب به محصول گندم تخصیص داده شده است. با اعمال سناریو کم‎آبیاری مقدار سود افزایش و مقدار شاخص نابرابری تخصیص در آب کاهش می‎یابد.

نتیجه­ گیری: نتایج نشان داد در صورت استفاده از روش کم آبیاری، منفعت حاصل از مقدار آب ذخیره شده جبران کاهش عملکرد محصول را کرده و با استفاده از  مقدار آب صرفه جویی می‎توان به محصولات پربازده آب بیشتری تخصیص داد و ضرر ناشی از کاهش عملکرد را جبران کرد. همچنین با اعمال سناریو کم‎آبیاری کاهش در عملکرد نسبی برای محصولات کاهش پیدا می‎کند. کم‎آبیاری سبب شده است که نیاز آبی تامین نشده محصولات کاهش یابد و درصد بیشتری از نیاز آبی آنها تامین شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Due to frequent droughts, it is usually not possible to increase water allocation and therefore it is the limiting factor of water volume. Considering the limitation of water resources, the use of appropriate techniques to optimize the allocation of water to different products can be a solution. Using deficit irrigation methods is an optimal strategy to deal with the water shortage crisis.

Methods: In the current study have been investigated the effects of deficit irrigation on water allocation between crops and regions, system profit, water exchange between regions. For this purpose, the Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot equilibrium model has been used with the aim of allocating water between different irrigated areas at the leader level and allocating water between different crops at the follower level in the condition that the water market is formed and emphasis on deficit irrigation. In this study, three scenarios of 5% deficit irrigation, 10% deficit irrigation and 15% deficit irrigation have been considered to deal with drought conditions in Sistan region.

Findings: The results showed that in the condition that full irrigation is done, the most water is allocated to the melon crop and the least amount of water to the wheat crop, and the profit in this case is 2.71×10¹¹ IRR, which increases the profit by applying deficit irrigation scenarios. The results of this research can be used as assistants for network managers and responsible people for water allocation.

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