اولویت سنجی عوامل موثر بر تاب آوری اجتماعی منطقه 3 شهرداری شیراز در برابر زلزله
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهریپریسا مشک سار 1 , محمد حسن آزادی 2
1 - استادیار گروه شهرسازی، موسسه آموزش عالی آپادانا، شیراز، ایران
2 - مدرس مدعو گروه شهرسازی، موسسه آموزش عالی آپادانا، شیراز، ایران
کلید واژه: بحران, تاب آوری اجتماعی, زلزله منطقه 3 شهرداری شیراز,
چکیده مقاله :
تاب آوری در برابر زلزله یکی از مفاهیم بسیار مهم نظری و عملی در مدیریت بحران است .طی چند دهه گذشته، رشد شتابان شهری و توسعه مناطق فرودست شهری (به ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه) موجب شده که آسیب پذیری آن ها در برابر بحران هایی با منشاء انسانی و طبیعی بیش از پیش گردد. لذا امروزه بر بحث تاب آوری بیش از آسیب پذیری تاکید شده است.
پژوهش حاضر با هدف اســتخراج اثرگذارترین مؤلفه ها و اولویت سنجى آن هــا در تاب آورى با رویکرد اجتماعى جهت مقابله با زلزله در مرحله پیشــگیرى در منطقه 3 شهرداری شیراز انجام گرفت. 383 پرسشنامه به عنوان نمونه از سرپرستان خانوارها جمع آوری گردید . ابزار گردآوری داده ها پرسشنامه محقق ساخته بود که سوالاتی در مورد ویژگی های اجتماعی و اقتصادی خانوارها و ارزیابی ابعاد و مولفه های تاب آوری را در بر می گرفت. داده ها، با به کارگیری آزمون های مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند . جهت بررسی تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها مدل رگرسیون خطی چندگانه، t- test، تحلیل واریانس ANOVA و ضریب همبستگی پیرسون به کار رفته است.
نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که از میان شاخص های مورد مطالعه مولفه سرمایه اجتماعی با میانگین نظری 3.99، بیش ترین اهمیت را در پیش بینی تاب آوری کل برخوردار است. در مجموع، بعد تاب آوری اجتماعی از سطح مطلوبی برخودار بوده است. نتایج رگرسیون خطی چندگانه نشان می دهد وضعیت تاهل، میزان درآمد ماهیانه فرد، میزان درآمد صرف ضروریات، کیفیت و عمر ساختمان و تعداد دفعات تجربه زلزله رابطه معنی داری با تاب آوری اجتماعی دارند. چنان‌چه نتایج نشان می‌دهد به ازای هر واحد افزایش در متغیر تعداد دفعات تجربه زلزله میزان تاب‌آوری اجتماعی به اندازه 18/0 افزایش می‌یابد.
Measuring and evaluating resilience against earthquake is one of the maintheoretical and practical concepts in crisis management. During the last few decades, rapid peace of urbanization and development of poor urban area(particularly in developing countries) have led to increased vulnerability of them against crisis oriented from human and natural factors. Thus, nowadays, a special emphasis is put on resilience rather than vulnerability. The aim of this study is to extract the most effective components and prioritize them in resilience with a social approach to earthquake response was done in the prevention phase in the 3rd municipal district of Shiraz city. In this study, a sample size was estimated to be 383 heads of households of this district.The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that includedquestions about socioeconomic characteristics of households and questionsassessing dimensions and components of resilience. Data were analysedusing multiple linear regression, t- test, ANOVA and Pearson correlationcoefficient. The results of the evaluation in the quantitative section of theresearch shows that in the social resilience, respectively, the highest average(3.99) was related to the components of social capital .Overall,the social resilience dimension has been reported at a desirable level. The results of the multiple linear regression model showed that Marital status, amount of monthly income, amount of income spent on necessities, quality and life of the building and number of earthquake experiences have a significant relationship with social resilience. As the results show, for each unit of increase in the variable number of earthquake experiences, the rate of social resilience increases by 0.18
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Measuring and evaluating resilience against earthquake is one of the main theoretical and practical concepts in crisis management. During the last few decades, rapid peace of urbanization and development of poor urban area (particularly in developing countries) have led to increased vulnerability of them against crisis oriented from human and natural factors.
Methodology
Thus, in recent years, a special emphasis is put on resilience rather than vulnerability. The aim of this study is to extract the most effective components at the level of households in the 3rd municipal district of Shiraz city.and prioritize them. In this study, a sample size was estimated to be 383 heads of households.
The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that included questions about socioeconomic characteristics of households and questions assessing dimensions and components of resilience. Data were analysed using multiple linear regression, t- test, ANOVA and Pearson correlation coefficient.
Results and discussion
To measure the level of social resilience of sample households in facing and coping with earthquakes, according to the normal distribution of data, the Wilcoxon signed one-sample parametric test was used, considering the desired numerical limit of 3 and comparing it with the theoretical mean of each component. The questions in each component were summed and divided by the number of questions in that component. The theoretical mean of each component was obtained as a number between 1 and 5, which was compared with the desired limit of 3 using the signed parametric test. As is clear from the table below, in this study, the theoretical mean score of the social capital component (3.99), the attitude component (3.94), the awareness and knowledge component (3.78), and the skill component (3.76) are higher than the desired limit of 3, respectively, and this indicates the priority of social capital over other components. Given that the significance level of the one-sample test is less than 0.05, it can be concluded that the sample households are in a favorable situation in terms of the components of awareness and knowledge, skills, attitudes, and social capital. In total, the theoretical average score of social resilience for the study of District 3 of Shiraz Municipality was 3.90, which is higher than the desired level of 3 at a significance level of less than 0.05. In other words, this finding indicates that the social resilience situation from the perspective of household head respondents in this study is in a favorable situation.
Conclusion
The results of the evaluation in the quantitative section of the research shows that in the social resilience, respectively, the highest average was related to the components of social capital .the examination of the effect of underlying factors on the total amount of resilience, the results of the multiple linear regression model showed that with increased staying time in the area of residence and number of people working to provide the family, the level of the resilience of households increases. Marital status, amount of monthly income, amount of income spent on necessities, quality and life of the building have a significant relationship with social resilience.
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