هویت اجتماعی در سرمایه¬گذاری، مدیریت منابع مالی و ارزش¬گذاری توسط سرمایه¬گذاران بالقوه با نظریه نفرین برنده
محورهای موضوعی : پژوهش های مالی و رفتاری در حسابداری
عباس رمضان زاده زیدی
1
,
علیرضا حیدری
2
,
علی بیات
3
,
وهاب رستمی
4
1 - استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد نکا، مازندران، ایران
2 - دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد زنجان، زنجان، ایران
3 - گروه حسابداری، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران.
4 - استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه پیام نور زنجان، زنجان، ایران
کلید واژه: نظریه نفرین برنده, هویت اجتماعی, مدیریت منابع مالی, ارزش¬گذاری.,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی هویت اجتماعی در سرمایهگذاری، مدیریت منابع مالی و ارزشگذاری در بنگاههای اقتصادی توسط سرمایهگذاران بالقوه با نظریه نفرین برنده است. جامعه آماری در بحث رفتاری شامل سرمایهگذاران بالقوه و اساتید دانشگاه و دانشجویان دکتری در رشته حسابداری میباشند و با روش هدفمند 100 نفر بعنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیده است و جامعه آماری در ارزشگذاری شامل شرکتهایی که سال 1400 عرضه اولیه داشتهاند و صنایع غذایی، زراعت، شیمایی و فلزات اساسی به عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیدهاند. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نوع شبه آزمایشگاهی است. گردآوری اطلاعات به روش کتابخانهای و میدانی با ابزار سندکاوی و پرسشنامه صورت گرفته است. در تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات بدست آمده از مفروضات دریافتیم که سرمایهگذاران بالقوه با هویت اجتماعی بالا در ارزشگذاری ثأثیر داشته و دچار پدیده نفرین برنده نشدند که ابعاد جمعی فرضیه رد و فردی تأیید شد و هویت اجتماعی بالا در سرمایهگذاران بالقوه باعث کسب بازده سرمایهگذاری و مدیریت منابع مالی میشود. این اولین پژوهشی است که ویژگی رفتاری سرمایهگذاران بالقوه را از نظر هویت اجتماعی در دو بعد جمعی و فردی در کسب بازده سرمایهگذاری، مدیریت منابع مالی برای تشکیل پرتفوی بهینه و ارزشگذاری شرکتها بر اساس رویکرد نفرین برنده بررسی کرده است.
Background and Purpose: Social identity represents a facet of self-awareness grounded in group priorities and the recognition of belonging to a social collective. Individuals with a strong social identity tend to allocate a greater portion of their wealth to the stock market and strive to optimize their financial resources by constructing a well-suited portfolio. Conversely, these investors often seek opportunities that align with their social values and possess the requisite skills to accurately assess investments, thereby mitigating the risk of experiencing the winner's curse. Moreover, existing literature on investor decision-making indicates that individuals exhibiting distinct personality traits are capable of making sound investment choices, thus avoiding the winner's curse. Additionally, an investor's analytical approach can be influenced by prevailing economic and social conditions. This study, for the first time in the country, examines the interplay between social identity, investment strategies, financial resource management, and valuation among potential investors contextualized within the framework of the winner's curse.
Methodology: This research employs a practical approach in terms of purpose and adopts a descriptive survey methodology for implementation. Data were gathered through both library research and fieldwork, utilizing document analysis tools and a structured questionnaire. The study was conducted in a quasi-laboratory setting, incorporating real-case scenarios. The statistical population for the behavioral aspect of the research comprised potential investors, university professors, and doctoral students in the field of accounting. A non-probabilistic sample of 100 individuals was selected using the Cochran formula. In terms of valuation, the statistical population included companies that had their initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2021 (referred to as "1400" in the local calendar). Out of the 13 companies that went public in that year, six were retained in the sample, while two—namely, the National Pension Fund Investment and Management Services Company and the Entrepreneur Leasing Company—were excluded due to their distinct operational characteristics. The remaining four companies investigated included Ghakuresh, a player in the food and beverage sector (excluding sugar), Sapid in the agriculture and related services industry, Kimiatech in the chemical products sector, and Phosphozvar in the basic metals industry.
Findings: The analysis of the hypotheses revealed that potential investors with a strong social identity significantly influence company valuations and do not fall prey to the winner's curse phenomenon. This observation challenges the collective dimension of social identity while affirming its individual dimension. Additionally, a robust social identity among potential investors correlates with higher investment returns and more effective financial resource management. The findings indicate that investors leverage their social identity and financial knowledge to accurately assess the intrinsic value of stocks, enabling them to make informed buy and sell decisions that prevent them from succumbing to market irregularities and the winner's curse. Consequently, individuals with a high social identity, in conjunction with their moral and rational attributes, demonstrate an acute awareness of their social responsibilities, leading to favorable investment outcomes. In this context, potential investors possessing a strong social identity outperform those with a weaker social identity in managing their investment financial resources.
Discussion: To mitigate investment risks, investors are keen on predicting stock market indices, as accurate predictions can help reduce market risks and enhance investment opportunities. During an initial public offering (IPO), company managers possess confidential information regarding future cash flows, investment prospects, and their own management capabilities. Conversely, investors often lack confidence in the predictions related to a company's IPO. Investing in shares of newly listed companies presents a higher risk compared to established firms due to their lack of trading history and limited available data. If an investor purchases shares at a price exceeding the average valuation or the amounts suggested by others, they risk overpaying, thereby incurring the costs associated with the winner's curse. This phenomenon occurs when the investor pays more than the intrinsic value of the shares, ultimately leading to financial losses. Furthermore, investors with a strong social identity tend to allocate a significantly greater portion of their wealth to favorably valued IPO stocks. Analysts with a strong social identity are more likely to predict stock prices realistically and in closer alignment with intrinsic values. This ability allows them to generate positive returns, thereby decreasing the likelihood of encountering the winner's curse. In contrast, financial incentives hold greater significance for investors with a weaker social identity, who may consequently limit their socially responsible investments. Conversely, a strong social identity positively influences the ability to achieve appropriate investment returns and effectively manage financial resources. This study represents the first investigation into the behavioral characteristics of potential investors concerning social identity, examining both collective and individual dimensions in relation to investment returns, financial resource management for optimal portfolio formation, and company valuation through the lens of the winner's curse.
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