تحلیل ساختاری پیشرانهای مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری شهری با رویکرد تابآوری و تدوین سناریوهای مرتبط (مورد مطالعه: شهر شیراز)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهریمحمد رضا رضایی 1 , حسن اروجی 2 , حسین عزیزی 3
1 - استاد، جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران
2 - استادیار، جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران
3 - دانش آموخته دکتری، جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران
کلید واژه: تابآوری, گردشگری, شهر شیراز, سناریونویسی, پیشرانهای توسعه.,
چکیده مقاله :
گردشگري شهری امروزه از پیشروترین بخشهاي اقتصادي است. اما گاهی حوادثی سبب اختلال و توقف توسعه آن میشود. از این رو برای حل از این معضل، رویکرد تابآوری ارانه شده است. همچنین پیشبینی آینده گردشگری شهر و تعیین برنامهها و سناریوها در جهت توسعه آن، یکی از دغدغههای مهم برنامهریزان شهری به شمار میرود. بدین منظور ضرورت دارد ابتدا عوامل کلیدی که پیشرانهای توسعه گردشگری با رویکرد تابآوری بوده مشخص و سپس بر این اساس، سناریوهای مطلوب تدوین شوند. شهر شیراز یکی از مقاصد مهم گردشگری کشور محسوب میشود، اما در چند سال اخیر توسعه آن به خاطر سوانح با چالشهایی رو به رو بوده است که ضرورت دارد آینده گردشگری و سناریوهای آن از منظر تابآوری بررسی شود. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش، توصیفی و تحلیلی و روش گردآوری دادهها، کتابخانهای و میدانی (پرسشنامه) است. جامعه آماری شامل استادان دانشگاه، دانشجویان، فعالان گردشگری در شهر شیراز و نمونه آماری 33 نفر از جامعه آماری هستند. در تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها از روش دلفی برای تعیین عوامل، از روش تحلیل ساختاری و نرمافزار MAC MIC برای تحلیل پیشرانها و از تکنیک سناریونویسی، برای تدوین سناریوها استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که سیستم گردشگری شیراز در پلان تأثیرگذاری-تأثیرپذیری به صورت ناپایدار است و شرایط کنونی حاکم بر سیستم گردشگری در آینده تغییر خواهد کرد. تغییر در متغیرها به ویژه پیشرانها میتواند تغییر در سیستم و الگوی ارتباطات بین آنها را به همراه داشته باشد. پیشران درآمد ناشی از گردشگری به عنوان اثرگذارترین و پیشران وجود مدیران توانمند در زمان وقوع سوانح و بحران به عنوان اثرپذیرترین پیشرانها در توسعه پایدار آینده گردشگری شیراز با تأکید بر تابآوری شناخته شدند. در نهایت سناریوهای مطلوب و برتر و محتمل شناسایی و تشریح شدند.
Urban tourism is one of the most advanced economic sectors, but sometimes events that disrupt the performance of urban tourism cause its development to stop. Therefore, to prevent this problem, the resilience approach has been considered. Predicting the future of city tourism and determining programs and scenarios for its development is one of the important concerns of urban planners. For this purpose, it is necessary to first identify the key factors that drive tourism development with a resilient approach and then, based on this, write desirable scenarios. Shiraz city is one of the important tourism destinations of the country, but in recent years it has faced challenges due to natural and human disasters, which necessitates examining its tourism from a resilience perspective. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and analytical in terms of method. The statistical population includes university professors, students, and tourism activists in Shiraz city, and the statistical sample is 33 people from the statistical population. In data analysis, the Delphi method was used to determine factors, the structural analysis method and MICMAC software were used to analyze drivers, and the scenario writing technique was used to write scenarios. The results showed that the Shiraz tourism system is unstable in influence - influenceability plan and the current conditions governing the tourism system will change in the future. Changes in variables, especially drivers, can bring about changes in the system and the pattern of communication between them. The driver of tourism income as the most influential and the driver of the existence of capable managers during disasters and crises were identified as the most influential drivers in the sustainable development of the future of Shiraz tourism with an emphasis on resilience. Finally, the desirable, superior, and probable scenarios were identified and described.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
One of the factors that can be a solution in the development of cities today is the tourism industry. Among the types of tourism in terms of destination, urban tourism is the first destination for many tourists due to its many facilities and services. However, sometimes disasters disrupt the functioning of the urban tourism industry, which prevents it from continuing its development path. To minimize damage to tourism in the event of a disaster, post-disaster recovery, reconstruction of attractions, as well as changing the image of the tourist destination and recovery require a special strategy. Therefore, one of the new effective strategies in continuing tourism development is resilience; because this type of strategy allows the tourist destination to recover quickly after disasters. Resilience means that a society can withstand disasters without suffering serious damage and losing production capacity or quality of life, and receiving a lot of help from outside the society. One of the new methods of dissecting the factors affecting the development of the tourism industry with an emphasis on resilience is foresight methods. Foresight helps decision-makers to understand possible and probable futures in light of current actions and, accordingly, to determine the direction of management actions. By identifying and focusing on key variables, we can expect changes in the entire system. To examine the relationship between the variables involved in the drivers, we can use structural analysis, which is a useful tool in foresight. Also, scenario building, which is one of the most key methodologies in futures research, can model possible futures of structured social systems.
Methodology
This research is descriptive and analytical in terms of method and its purpose is practical. The data collection method is library and field. The dimensions and indicators used for this research have been identified from the opinions of experts in this field. Then, a questionnaire was designed and questions were asked from experts in the field of tourism. The validity of the research tool was confirmed by a number of academic experts. Data analysis was carried out in two parts: A- To identify and analyze the drivers of tourism development, the structural analysis method and MIC MAC software were used. B- After analyzing the factors and identifying the drivers, the scenario analysis method and scenario wizard software were used to write scenarios related to tourism development.
Results and discussion
In this study, using a questionnaire design and interviews with 33 experts and elites, they were asked to identify the most important key factors of tourism development with an emphasis on resilience within the next ten years. After the key factors were identified using the Delphi method, the effective driving forces were identified in the third stage. In this stage, a matrix of key factors was created to identify the driving forces. For this purpose, the MICMAC software was used. And by identifying the driving forces, the necessary graphs were obtained as output. In this study, the classification of the effective economic, socio-cultural, natural, institutional-management and infrastructural indicators of Shiraz tourism development with an emphasis on resilience was carried out within the framework of an N×N matrix. The distribution of variables on the influence - influenceability plan indicates the overall characteristics of the system, and based on the shape of the distribution of variables on the plan, it is determined whether the system is stable or unstable. According to the results of the MICMAC output, based on the experts' opinion, the state of Shiraz's tourism development based on resilience is somewhat unstable and the current conditions governing the tourism system will change drastically in the future. Changes in variables can bring about changes in the system and pattern of communication between them.The final stage, which is the most important step in the analysis using the method of examining mutual effects, is the analysis of the software outputs. In terms of the direct matrix, the variables of income from tourism, the presence of capable managers, and Shiraz's dependence on the tourism economy have the greatest impact on other variables, respectively. Conversely, the variables of the presence of capable managers during disasters and crises, the provision of path-breaking policies by tourism-related institutions, and the capacity of institutions to respond to disasters are the most affected variables, respectively, with scores. To extract scenarios, the driving factors of possible situations have been given for each factor. After designing and determining the possible situations, a matrix was created. After collecting the questionnaire, it was possible to use the Scenario Wizard software. Based on the results, 136 weak scenarios, 3 strong scenarios, and 3 scenarios with high compatibility were extracted. The scenarios with high compatibility have been considered as the base scenario for subsequent analyses because they are intermediate between these two scenarios and their probability of occurrence exists for the 1410 horizon of Shiraz. Therefore, three scenarios are more likely to occur in the future development of tourism in Shiraz. Of these three scenarios, the first scenario has favorable and ideal conditions (promoting scenario) and scenarios two and three have critical and unfavorable conditions for the future of tourism (restraining scenario) and indicate that critical trend conditions prevail over favorable conditions.
Conclusion
Success and achievement of the goals of tourism development based on resilience in the city of Shiraz depends on the effective communication and interaction between key factors and careful planning for these drivers, through which the desired scenarios can be pursued. In fact, what is clear is that each geographical region has its own unique characteristics and specific features, and identifying these variables and formulating desired scenarios is the first step in policy-making and planning for each region. What is clear is that each geographical region has its own unique characteristics and specific features, and identifying these variables is the first step in policy-making and planning for each region. In order to benefit from these capabilities, comprehensive planning with the participation of all interested groups is necessary for the development and progress of the region.
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