تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر الگوی شهر سبز با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی در کلان‌شهر مشهد
محورهای موضوعی : شهرهای پایدارسید مصطفی حسینی 1 , محمد رحیم رهنما 2 , محمد اجزا شکوهی 3 , امید علی خوارزمی 4
1 - دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
2 - استاد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد (مسؤول مکاتبات)، مشهد، ایران.
3 - دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
4 - استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
کلید واژه: محیط‌زیست, آینده‌پژوهی, شهر سبز, کلان‌شهر مشهد,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: امروزه به منظور دست‌یابی به توسعه پایدار شهری باید از الگوها و رویکردهایی آینده‌پژوهانه و سازگار با محیط‌زیست هم‌چون شهر سبز بهره گرفت تا بتوان در کنار ارتقا سطح کیفیت زندگی در شرایط فعلی محیط‌های شهری، این محیط‌ها را به عنوان جزئی از محیط‌های طبیعی برای نسل‌های آینده حفظ کرد. براین اساس در این پژوهش سعی شده است با نگاهی آینده‌پژوهانه نسبت به رویکرد شهر سبز به شناسایی شاخص‌های پیشران و کلیدی پرداخته شود تا از این طریق بتوان به منظور دست‌یابی به الگوی شهر سبز در آینده، سناریوهایی متناسب با شرایط کلان‌شهر مشهد ارایه داد. روش تحقیق: این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف از نوع کاربردی است که با استفاده از روش توصیفی تحلیلی و بهره‌گیری از ماتریس تحلیل اثرات متقابل در نرم افزار آینده‌پژوهی میک مک انجام شده است. یافته ها: نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان داد که شاخص پرشدگی داده‌ها با دو بار چرخش برابر با 04/79 درصد می‌باشد که این امر گویای میزان اثرگذاری بالای شاخص‌های شهر سبز بر یکدیگر می‌باشند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که شاخص مشارکت زیست محیطی با امتیاز 68 دارای بیش‌‌ترین میزان تأثیرگذاری مستقیم بر سایر شاخص‌های تحقیق است. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: در مجموع وضعیت پراکنش شاخص‌ها در نقشه اثر- وابستگی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم نشان داد که کلان‌شهر مشهد از نظر شاخص‌های شهر سبز در شرایط ناپایداری قرار دارد.
Introduction: Today, in order to achieve sustainable urban development, future research and environmentally friendly models and approaches such as the green city must be used to improve the quality of life in the current conditions of urban environments, these environments as a part of environmental protection. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to identify the driving and key indicators with a future-oriented view of the green city approach in order to provide scenarios appropriate to the conditions of Mashhad metropolis in order to achieve a green city model in the future. Material and Methods: This research is applied in terms of purpose, which has been done by using descriptive-analytical method and using the matrix of interaction analysis in Mick Mac futures research software. Results: The results showed that the data filling index with two rotations is equal to 79.04%, which indicates the high impact of green city indicators on each other. The results also showed that the environmental participation index with a score of 68 has the highest rate of direct impact on other research indicators. Discussion and Conclusions:In general, the distribution of indicators in the direct-indirect dependence effect map showed that Mashhad metropolis is in a state of instability in terms of green city indicators.
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1. EIU and Siemens. The Green City Index; A summary of the Green City Index research series, London: Siemens AG, 2012.
2. Gaffron, p. Huismans, G. Skala, F. Ecocity; Explaining the Principle of Sustainability in Urban Design, Translate By Basiri Mozhdehi, R., Farahmandian, H; Tehran: City Press, 2013 (In Persian).
3. Tavanbakhsh, M. Arjmand siya posh, E. Foundations of Sustainable Urban Development, Tehran: Sociologists Press, 2009 (In Persian).
4. Sepahand, R. Arefnejad, M. Prioritizing Urban Sustainable Development Indicators Using Group Hierarchy Analysis, Journal of Urban Studies and Planning, 1(1), 2013 (In Persian).
5. Hall, P. Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain. Comparative Politics, 25(3),(Apr., 1993), 275-296, 1993.
6. Ziari, K. Fundamentals and Methods of Regional Planning, Yazd: Yazd University, 1999 (In Persian).
7. Maleki, S. Introduction to sustainable urban development, Ahvaz: Shahid Chamran University, 2011 (In Persian).
8. Haughton, G. Hunter, C. sustainable cities, London: Regional studies Associattion, 1999.
9. Rahnama, M. Abbaszadeh, Gh. Principles, Foundations and Models of the Formation of the Form of City, Mashhad: Mashhad University, 2008 (In Persian).
10. E. Kahn, M. Green cities; Urban Growth and the Environment, Maryland: Potomac, 2006.
11. Timothy, B. Green Cities of Europe; Global Lessons on Green Urbanism, United States: Island Press. 2012.
12. Abdul Latif, S., Bidin, Y., and Awang, Z. Towards the Realization of Green Cities: The Moderating Role of the Residents’ Education Level. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013, Vol. 85, 646-652.
13. Ghorab, H.K., Shalahy, H.A. Eco and Green cities as new approaches for planning and developing cities in Egypt. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2016, Vol. 55, 495-503.
14. Tabibian, M. Afshar, Y. and Shahabi Shahmiri, M. Comparative evaluation of environmental status of Tehran city with 22 Asian cities based on green city approach indicators., Armanshahr Architecture & Urban Development journal, 15, 2015 (In Persian).
15. Pour ahmad, A. Omranzadeh, B. Mahdi, A. Green cities; Urban Growth and the Environment, Author: E, Kahn, Tehran: Jahad university, 2015 (In Persian).
16. Beatley, T. Green Urbanism Learning from Europian Cities. Washington DC: Island Press, 2000.
17. Danish Ministry of Environment and Energy. The European City—Sustaining Urban Quality. Working conference, Copenhagen, April, Spatial Planning Department, 1995.
18. Kościelniak, H., and Górka, A. Green Cities PPP as a Method of Financing Sustainable Urban Development. 2nd International Conference "Green Cities - Green Logistics for Greener Cities", 2-3 March 2016, Szczecin, Poland.
19. Newman, P. Green Urbanism and its Application to Singapore, Environment and Urbanization ASIA, 2010, 1(2) 149–170.
20. Beatley, T., Newman, P. Green Urbanism Down Under: Learning from Sustainable Communities in Australia, Washington DC: Island Press, 2009.
21. Rahnama, M.R. and Marofi, A. Scenario in Urban and Regional Studies (Concepts, Methods and Experiences), Mashhad: Mashhad Islamic Council Research Center Publication, 2015 (In Persian).
22. EIU and Siemens, European Green City Index, London: Siemens AG, 2009.
23. EIU and Siemens, Latin American Green City Index, London: Siemens AG, 2010.
24. EIU and Siemens, African Green City Index, London: Siemens AG, 2011a.
25. EIU and Siemens, US and Canada Green City Index, London: Siemens AG, 2011c.
26. EIU and Siemens, Asian Green City Index, London: Siemens AG, 2011b.
27. Salehi, E. Aghababaei, M.T. Sarmadi, H. Farzad Behtash, M.R. Considering the Environment Resiliency by Use of Cause Model, Journal of Environmental studies, 37(59), 99-112, 2011 (In Persian).
28. Sheikh Kazem Barzagari, M.R. Ahmad Moazam, A. Investigation of the vulnerability of urban environments against fire based on the approach of the city, The 5th International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management, 825-837, 2014 (In Persian).
29. Behtash, F. Keynejhad, M.A. Pirbabaei, M.T. Asgary, A. Evaluation and Analysis of Dimensions and Components of Tabriz Metropolis Resiliency, Honar haye ziba memari va shahrsazi, 18(3), 33-42, 2013 (In Persian).
30. Mahdizad, W. Sanandaj Resilience in the Environmental Dimension. First International Conference on Urban Economics (with Respectable Economic Approach, Action and Action), May-2016 (In Persian).
31. Management of Crisis Mashhad Municipality. How to rescue cities - a handbook for local government managers. Mashhad: Mashhad Municipality, 2012 (In Persian).
32. Yazdan Neyaz, A.H. Motahari, Z.S. Evolutionary evolution of crisis management approaches (from reducing vulnerability to increased resilience). The Second National Conference on Crisis Management, The Role of New Technologies in Reducing the Impact of Accident Investigations, Tehran, 2012 (In Persian).
33. Fani, Z. Masoomi, L. Review and assess the resiliency strategies in lifestyle Case Study: Northern Shokufeh neighborhood District 19 of Tehran, 5(20), 83-96, 2017 (In Persian).
34. Liang, S. Xu, M. Suh, S. Tan, R.R. Unintended environmental consequences and co-benefits of economic restructuring. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 (22), 12894-12902, 2013.
35. Koontz, T.M. Thomas, C.W. (2006). What do we know and need to know about the environmental outcomes of collaborative management? Public Adm. Rev. 66, 111-121, 2006.
36. Sternlieb, F. Bixler, P. Huber-Stearns, H. Huayhuaca, C. A question of fit: reflections on boundaries, organizations and social-ecological systems. Journal of Environmental Management 130, 117–125, 2013.
37. Moghim, S. Gana, R.K. Countries' classification by environmental resilience. Journal of Environmental Management, 230(2019), 345–354, 2019.
38. Gunderson, L.H. Ecological resilience – in theory and application. Annual Reviews, 31(2000), 425-439, 2000.
39. Li, Y. Li, Y. Kappas, M. Pavao- Zuckerman, M. Environment International, 113(2018), 184–190, 2018.
40. Lemos, M. Agrawal, A. Environmental Governance, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31(2006), 297-325, 2006.
41. Rahnama, M.R. and Hosseini, S.M. Application of Futures Studies Software in Urban Studies. Mashhad: Research Center of Islamic Council of Mashhad, 2016 (In Persian).
