بررسی وضعیت خشک‌سالی در استان خراسانجنوبی توسط شاخص درصد بارش نرمال (PNPI) و شاخص روش استانداردسازی (Z)
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت محیط زیست
محمد حسین جهانگیر
1
(استادیار گروه انرژی‌های نو و محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات))
محمد سارانی‌راد
2
(کارشناسی ارشد اکوهیدرولوژی، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.)
تاریخ دریافت : 1395/08/08
تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/04/28
تاریخ انتشار : 1398/04/01
کلید واژه:
شدت خشک‌سالی,
شاخص درصد بارش نرمال,
شاخص استانداردسازی,
خراسان جنوبی,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: خشک‌سالی از جمله بلایای طبیعی است که نسبت به سایر پدیده های طبیعی در یک بازه زمانی طولانی اتفاق می افتد که به صورت متناوب جوامع بشری را از طریق اثرات منفی بر روی منابع آب و کشاورزی و به دنبال آن اقتصاد را دچار مشکل می سازد. لذا در مطالعات خشک‌سالی گام اساسی، انتخاب شاخصی مناسب برای هر منطقه است که بتوان بر اساس آن میزان شدت، تداوم و بزرگی خشک‌سالی را در یک منطقه ارزیابی کرد. هدف اصلی این تحقیق انتخاب شاخص مناسب برای پایش خشک‌سالی منطقه، طبقه‌بندی و تعیین درجات شدت خشک‌سالی و ترسالی و شناسایی نواحی مستعد خشک‌سالی استان خراسان جنوبی جهت برنامه ریزی و مدیریت بهتر در زمینه خشک‌سالی می باشد. روش بررسی: در این تحقیق وضعیت خشک‌سالی استان خراسان جنوبی، با استفاده از شاخص خشک‌سالی هواشناسی درصد بارش نرمال (PNPI) و شاخص روش استاندارد سازی (Z) مورد ارزیابی قرار می گیرد. از آنجائیکه اکثر ایستگاه‌ها دارای آمار طولانی مدت (30 سال) نیستند، بدین منظور از داده های بارندگی ایستگاه های موجود با دوره آماری 24 سال (2014-1990) استفاده شد و مقادیر شدت خشک‌سالی با استفاده از شاخص های موردنظر برای هر ایستگاه با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Matlab محاسبه گردید سپس بر اساس جداول مربوط به هر شاخص درجات شدت خشک‌سالی و ترسالی مشخص گردید. یافته‌ها: نتایج شاخص PNPI نشان داد که در ایستگاه های مورد مطالعه، ایستگاه های خور بیرجند با 5 ماه، ایستگاه‌های بشرویه، قاین و فردوس با 4 ماه و ایستگاه های بیرجند و نهبندان با 3 ماه دارای دوره بسیار مرطوب بوده اند. خشک‌سالی اکثر ایستگاه‌ها در محدوده خشکی متوسط تا رطوبت متوسط بوده است. بیشترین مقدار Z (ترسالی84/1) مربوط به ایستگاه نهبندان در ماه مارس و اکثر ایستگاه‌ها در ماه‌ها ژوئن، جولای، آگوست، سپتامبر و اکتبر دارای خشکی متوسط هستند. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: خشک‌سالی اکثر ایستگاه ها با این دو روش در محدوده خشکی متوسط تا مرطوب متوسط بوده است. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی فرضیه وقوع خشک‌سالی بسیار شدید است که در سال وقوع کمینه بارندگی اتفاق افتاده است و در این مطالعه شاخص PNPI شاخص مناسب تری برای منطقه ارزیابی می‌شود.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and Objective: Drought is among the natural disasters which happens in a long period of time and intermittently makes problems for human societies and consequently the economy through negative effects on water resources and agriculture compared to other natural phenomena. Thus, the basic step in drought studies is to select appropriate indicators for each area based on severity, duration and magnitude of drought in the study area. The aim of this study is to select appropriate indicators to classify and determine the degree of severity of the drought and wet and to identify the drought prone regions in South Khorasan province for planning and better management of drought. The values of drought severity were calculated by the desired index for each station using Matlab software. Then, based on the tables for each index, the drought and wet intensities were determined. Method: In this study, the situation of drought in South Khorasan province was evaluated using the drought index, weather percent of normal precipitation (PNPI) and standard methods of index (Z). Since most stations do not cover the long-term (30 years) statistics of precipitation data, the available stations with the precipitation data for period of 24 years (2014- 1990) were used. Findings: PNPI index results showed that among the studied stations, Khor Birjand stations with 5 months, Boshrooyeh, Ghain and Ferdous stations with 4 months and Birjand and Nehbandan stations with 3 months has the longest wet period. Drought is in the range of moderate drought to moderate humidity in most stations. The highest Z (wet 1/84) belongs to Nehbandan station in March and most of the stations experience moderate drought in June, July, August, September and October. Discussion and Conclusion: The two methods show that the drought is in the range of moderate drought to moderate humidity in most of the stations. According to the results of hypothesis evaluation, the drought has been very severe and has led to occurrence of minimum annual precipitation. In this study, PNPI index was found to be a more appropriate index for the region.
منابع و مأخذ:
Reference
Morid, S., Smakhtin, V. and Moghadasi, M. (2006). "Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran" International journal of climatology, 26, 971-985.
Michelle and Stormman (2003). "Drought Monitoring Using Several Highly Used Indices and Estimating the Best Indicator", Case Study of Abadan City (persian).
Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Management Organization (2004). National Action Plan for Desertification and Reducing the Drought Effects of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Puneh, Tehran, p. 7, (persian).
Siof, (1385). "Climate change and drought", Hormozgan University, (persian).
Umran Komuscu, A. (1999). Using the SPI to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought Network News (1994-2001), 49.
Good Faith, F (1376). "Investigation of Temporary Drought and Threats Patterns in Iran", Quarterly Journal of Geographic Research, Serial No. 45, (persian).
Zare Abyaneh, H., Bayat Workishi, M., Sabzi-e Parvar, A., Zarafi, P., Qasemi, A. (2010). "Evaluation of Different Methods for Estimating the Convergence and Reproduction of Reference Plants in Iran", Natural Geographic Researches, No. 74, pp. 95-109, (persian).
Sohrabi, R. A., Sohrabi, H. And Arab, d. R., (1387). "The study of drought monitoring indicators from the evolutionary landscape, nature and performance, and suggesting the process of selecting the index appropriate to the conditions of the regions." Proceedings of Third Conference on Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Tabriz, Iran, (persian).
Obasi, G. O. P. (1994). WMO's role in the international decade for natural disaster reduction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75(9), 1655-1661.
Bruce, J. P. (1994). Natural disaster reduction and global change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75(10), 1831-1835.
Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions.
Austin, R. B., Cantero-Martınez, C., Arrúe, J. L., Playán, E., & Cano-Marcellán, P. (1998). Yield–rainfall relationships in cereal cropping systems in the Ebro river valley of Spain. European Journal of Agronomy, 8(3), 239-248.
Leilah, A. A., & Al-Khateeb, S. A. (2005). Statistical analysis of wheat yield under drought conditions. Journal of Arid environments, 61(3), 483-496.
DeGaetano, A. T. (1999). A temporal comparison of drought impacts and responses in the New York city metropolitan area. Climatic Change, 42(3), 539-560.
Nicholson, S. E., Tucker, C. J., & Ba, M. B. (1998). Desertification, drought, and surface vegitation: An example from the West African Sahel. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(5), 815.
Khorshid Dost, A.M., Ghavidel Rahimi, Y. (2004). "Study of precipitation fluctuations, prediction and determination of wet and dry seasons in East Azarbaijan Province", Journal of Geographical Research, Spring 2004, No. 72, pp. 25-36, (persian).
Courts of Suc, M. And Honorable, A., (1391). "Designing the process of selecting the appropriate index based on the assessment of meteorological drought indices in a number of dry and semi-arid regions of Iran". Journal of Soil and Water Sciences and Agriculture. Vol. 26, No. 2, p. 414-426 (persian).
Karimi, Habibnejad Roshan, M., Abkar, A., (2010). "Evaluation of Meteorological Drought Indices in Mazandaran Synoptic Stations", Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, (persian).
Ensafe Moghaddam, T., (2007). "Evaluation of Several Climate Drought Indicators and Determining the Most Appropriate Indicator in the Salt Lake Basin", Journal of Research in Rangeland and Desert of Iran, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 288-271, (persian).
Mashari Eshghabad, S., Omidvar, E., & Solaimani, K. (2014). Efficiency of Some Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Time Scales (Case Study: Tajan Basin, Iran). ECOPERSIA, 2(1), 441-453.
Quiring, S. M., and Papakryiakou, T. N. (2003). "An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies" Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118 ,1-2, 49-62.
Steinmann, A. (2003). "Drought indicators and triggers: A stochastic approach to evaluation" Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). 39, 5, 1217-1233.
Fal Soleiman, M. (1993). "Drought and semi-arid areas, based on water resources constraints", Case study of Birjand Basin, Master thesis, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
Khosravi M., Akbari M., (2009). "Investigating the Drought Characteristics of South Khorasan Province", Geography and Development, No. 14.
Willeke, G. E., Guttman, N. B., Hosking, J. R. M., & Wallis, J. R. (1994). National drought atlas developed. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 75(8), 89-90.
Khalighi Sigarodi, Sh., (2009). "Investigating the Evaluation of Drought and Dirty Diseases in a Case Study of Mazandaran Province", Journal of Rangeland and Desert Research, Volume 16, Number 1, (persian).
Heim and Kotyl, (1995). "Drought and Wetness Analysis and Prediction of Climate Change in Birjand Region Using Statistical Model", (persian).
Khalili, AS Sowing, J., (1382). "Evaluation of the Efficiency of Multi-Drought Meteorological Indexes in Different Climatic Species of Iran", Scientific and Technical Journal of Nivar, Nos. 48 and 49, Spring and Summer, p. 93-79, (persian).
Elder, H., Rahdari, and., Maleki, S., (2012). "Study and comparison of the efficiency of four meteorological drought indexes in drought risk management in Sistan & Balouchestan province", Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, No 11, Spring 2013, (persian).
MARD, Report of drought mitigation on Vietnam Southern Central, Central Highland and Eastern South Regions under El Nino phenomenon (in Vietnamese), 2016.
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Reference
Morid, S., Smakhtin, V. and Moghadasi, M. (2006). "Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran" International journal of climatology, 26, 971-985.
Michelle and Stormman (2003). "Drought Monitoring Using Several Highly Used Indices and Estimating the Best Indicator", Case Study of Abadan City (persian).
Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Management Organization (2004). National Action Plan for Desertification and Reducing the Drought Effects of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Puneh, Tehran, p. 7, (persian).
Siof, (1385). "Climate change and drought", Hormozgan University, (persian).
Umran Komuscu, A. (1999). Using the SPI to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought Network News (1994-2001), 49.
Good Faith, F (1376). "Investigation of Temporary Drought and Threats Patterns in Iran", Quarterly Journal of Geographic Research, Serial No. 45, (persian).
Zare Abyaneh, H., Bayat Workishi, M., Sabzi-e Parvar, A., Zarafi, P., Qasemi, A. (2010). "Evaluation of Different Methods for Estimating the Convergence and Reproduction of Reference Plants in Iran", Natural Geographic Researches, No. 74, pp. 95-109, (persian).
Sohrabi, R. A., Sohrabi, H. And Arab, d. R., (1387). "The study of drought monitoring indicators from the evolutionary landscape, nature and performance, and suggesting the process of selecting the index appropriate to the conditions of the regions." Proceedings of Third Conference on Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Tabriz, Iran, (persian).
Obasi, G. O. P. (1994). WMO's role in the international decade for natural disaster reduction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75(9), 1655-1661.
Bruce, J. P. (1994). Natural disaster reduction and global change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75(10), 1831-1835.
Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions.
Austin, R. B., Cantero-Martınez, C., Arrúe, J. L., Playán, E., & Cano-Marcellán, P. (1998). Yield–rainfall relationships in cereal cropping systems in the Ebro river valley of Spain. European Journal of Agronomy, 8(3), 239-248.
Leilah, A. A., & Al-Khateeb, S. A. (2005). Statistical analysis of wheat yield under drought conditions. Journal of Arid environments, 61(3), 483-496.
DeGaetano, A. T. (1999). A temporal comparison of drought impacts and responses in the New York city metropolitan area. Climatic Change, 42(3), 539-560.
Nicholson, S. E., Tucker, C. J., & Ba, M. B. (1998). Desertification, drought, and surface vegitation: An example from the West African Sahel. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(5), 815.
Khorshid Dost, A.M., Ghavidel Rahimi, Y. (2004). "Study of precipitation fluctuations, prediction and determination of wet and dry seasons in East Azarbaijan Province", Journal of Geographical Research, Spring 2004, No. 72, pp. 25-36, (persian).
Courts of Suc, M. And Honorable, A., (1391). "Designing the process of selecting the appropriate index based on the assessment of meteorological drought indices in a number of dry and semi-arid regions of Iran". Journal of Soil and Water Sciences and Agriculture. Vol. 26, No. 2, p. 414-426 (persian).
Karimi, Habibnejad Roshan, M., Abkar, A., (2010). "Evaluation of Meteorological Drought Indices in Mazandaran Synoptic Stations", Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, (persian).
Ensafe Moghaddam, T., (2007). "Evaluation of Several Climate Drought Indicators and Determining the Most Appropriate Indicator in the Salt Lake Basin", Journal of Research in Rangeland and Desert of Iran, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 288-271, (persian).
Mashari Eshghabad, S., Omidvar, E., & Solaimani, K. (2014). Efficiency of Some Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Time Scales (Case Study: Tajan Basin, Iran). ECOPERSIA, 2(1), 441-453.
Quiring, S. M., and Papakryiakou, T. N. (2003). "An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies" Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118 ,1-2, 49-62.
Steinmann, A. (2003). "Drought indicators and triggers: A stochastic approach to evaluation" Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). 39, 5, 1217-1233.
Fal Soleiman, M. (1993). "Drought and semi-arid areas, based on water resources constraints", Case study of Birjand Basin, Master thesis, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
Khosravi M., Akbari M., (2009). "Investigating the Drought Characteristics of South Khorasan Province", Geography and Development, No. 14.
Willeke, G. E., Guttman, N. B., Hosking, J. R. M., & Wallis, J. R. (1994). National drought atlas developed. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 75(8), 89-90.
Khalighi Sigarodi, Sh., (2009). "Investigating the Evaluation of Drought and Dirty Diseases in a Case Study of Mazandaran Province", Journal of Rangeland and Desert Research, Volume 16, Number 1, (persian).
Heim and Kotyl, (1995). "Drought and Wetness Analysis and Prediction of Climate Change in Birjand Region Using Statistical Model", (persian).
Khalili, AS Sowing, J., (1382). "Evaluation of the Efficiency of Multi-Drought Meteorological Indexes in Different Climatic Species of Iran", Scientific and Technical Journal of Nivar, Nos. 48 and 49, Spring and Summer, p. 93-79, (persian).
Elder, H., Rahdari, and., Maleki, S., (2012). "Study and comparison of the efficiency of four meteorological drought indexes in drought risk management in Sistan & Balouchestan province", Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, No 11, Spring 2013, (persian).
MARD, Report of drought mitigation on Vietnam Southern Central, Central Highland and Eastern South Regions under El Nino phenomenon (in Vietnamese), 2016.
