آینده‌پژوهی بعد اکولوژیکی تاب‌آوری در ساختار فضایی شهر تهران
محورهای موضوعی : برنامه ریزی شهری
ابراهیم فرهادی
1
,
احمد پوراحمد
2
,
کرامت اله زیاری
3
,
حسنعلی فرجی سبکبار
4
1 - دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، ایران و پژوهشگر برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای در دانشگاه بلونیا،ایتالیا
2 - استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه ریزی ، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 - گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران
4 - استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه ریزی ، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: شهر تهران, تاب‌آوری, آینده‌پژوهی, ساختار فضایی, اکولوژیک,
چکیده مقاله :
در طی یکی دو دهه اخیر با افزایش بحران‌ها، تاب‌آوری شهرها و مناطق در مقابل مخاطرات طبیعی و انسانی موردتوجه ویژه‌ای قرارگرفته است. هدف این پژوهش تحلیل فضایی مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر تاب‌آوری شهری کلان‌شهر تهران (پایتخت سیاسی و اقتصادی ایران) در قالب شاخص‌های اکولوژیکی و شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل اثرگذار بر آن‌هاست. در این پژوهش ابتدا شاخص‌هایی در 7 دسته شامل مخازن انتقال آب، مراکز جمع‌آوری زباله، مراکز تصفیه آب و فاضلاب، کاربری سبز و پارک‌ها، اراضی قهوه‌ای و بایر، خطوط گسل، و آلودگی هوا در محیط نرم‌افزار جی‌آی‌اس با استفاده از ابزارهای هم‌پوشانی وضعیت تاب‌آوری مناطق را نشان داد. بحث آینده‌پژوهی این مقاله متشکل از دو بخش است.در بخش اول، به‌منظور ایجاد پایگاهی از عوامل اولیه موجود درباره مؤلفه‌های تاب‌آوری فضایی ، از تکنیک پویش محیطی (بررسی مقالات و منابع چاپی، مصاحبه با متخصصان و پایش همایش‌ها و کنفرانس‌ها) و بررسی پیشینه ادبیات استفاده‌شده است.در بخش دوم از کارشناسان و نخبگان خواسته شد که مهم‌ترین مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر تاب‌آوری اکولوژیکی زیست‌محیطی را ظرف ۱۰ سال آینده مشخص نمایند. که نهایتاً به‌صورت دلفی 18 متغیر تعیین گردیدند و از نرم‌افزار میک مک برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها استفاده می‌شود.یافته‌ها نشان داد تحلیل فضایی تاب‌آوری شهر تهران در بعد اکولوژیکی زیست‌محیطی با در نظر گرفتن نمودار تحلیل اثر ـ وابستگی در وضعیت ناپایدار قرار دارد. بر اساس یافته ها، متغیرهای پهنه‌های گسل و شدت زلزله، خشک‌سالی، استقرار منابع تولیدی و صنعتی (نیروگاه و صنایع)، هم‌جواری کانون‌های خطر، کیفیت خاک، کیفیت و کمیت ذخایر آبی، آلودگی‌های زیست‌محیطی، تهدیدات با منشأ ژئومورفولوژیک (زمین‌لغزش، فرونشست و..) دارای بیشترین ضریب تأثیرگذاری بر بعد اکولوژیکی تاب‌آوری شهر تهران دارد.
During the last one or two decades, with the increase in crises, the resilience of cities and regions against natural and human hazards has received particular attention. The aim of this research is the spatial analysis of the components affecting the urban resilience of the metropolis of Tehran (the political and economic capital of Iran) in the form of ecological indicators and identifying the most important factors affecting them. In this research, firstly, indicators in 7 categories include water transfer reservoirs, waste collection centers, water and wastewater treatment centers, green use and parks, brown and barren lands, fault lines, and air pollution in the GIS software environment using resilience state overlay tools. It showed the areas. The future research discussion of this article consists of two parts. In the first part, in order to create a base of existing primary factors about the components of spatial resilience, from the environmental scanning technique (examination of articles and printed sources, interviews with experts, and monitoring of conventions and conferences) and review of the literature background. In the second part, experts and elites were asked to identify the most important factors affecting the ecological resilience of the environment within the next 10 years. Finally, 18 variables were determined by Delphi, and Mic Mac software was used for data analysis. The findings showed that the spatial analysis of the resilience of Tehran city in the ecological dimension of the environment is in an unstable state by considering the effect-dependency analysis diagram. Based on the findings, the variables of fault zones and earthquake intensity, drought, establishment of production and industrial resources (power plants and industries), proximity of risk centers, soil quality, quality and quantity of water reserves, environmental pollution, threats of geomorphological origin (landslide, subsidence) and..) has the highest influencing factor on the ecological dimension of the resilience of Tehran city. Extended Abstract Introduction: Today, societies are trying to achieve conditions that will provide them with a quick return to the pre-crisis situation in case of various accidents and damages. Therefore, in recent studies particular emphasis has been placed on resilience and the promotion of resilience against various accidents and crises has become an important and broad field, so the simultaneous and mutual movement of sustainable development and increasing resilience is currently being discussed. Urban resilience is one of the most important and key approaches that guarantee the survival of human settlements. Unfortunately, in recent years, the vulnerability of Iranian cities to unexpected incidents and accidents has increased, which has made the need for foresight in this field even more important. The ever-increasing speed of changes in the first decade of the 21st century has led to the emergence of an era called uncertainty and has placed an environment full of opportunities and threats in front of the current complex systems. In this unstable and rapidly changing environment, the traditional tools of planning will not be responsible for the medium and long term. During the last two centuries, and especially from the 20th century until now, a completely different approach has emerged in urban and regional planning, but the nature of planning, i.e. purposefulness, systematicity, and having future guidelines, remains intact. The important point is that the type of attitude and intellectual foundations that prevailed in different times have changed in the category of planning, which has caused the creation of different styles in planning. One of these approaches is planning based on the future research scenario. The importance of the issue comes from the fact that the city of Tehran has a population of 8,693,706 people, and this city, as the capital and the first metropolis of Iran, faces many challenges, including the ever-increasing population and the subsequent abnormal development of the urban body (in the event of an earthquake, witnessing a human disaster and fewer casualties in the world) we will be). The purpose of this article is to evaluate the spatial resilience of Tehran city from an ecological perspective and to provide suggestions and solutions by examining the current situation. Methodology: In terms of the purpose, the research is of an applied type, which was carried out by a descriptive-analytical method based on documentary library studies and field investigations. Considering the nature of the data and the impossibility of controlling the behavior of the effective variables in the problem, this research was of a non-experimental type and was carried out within the framework of the case-analytic model. The investigated community was the statistical block and all urban and residential uses of Tehran city, and the main data was obtained mainly by using the data of the urban blocks of the Iranian Statistics Center and the available documents, including the comprehensive and detailed plan. Available information layers, field observations, targeted questioning of municipal experts, and specific data produced in the software environment of the GIS geographic information system, as well as document and library study, have provided another part of the required information for the article. To achieve the objectives of the research, indicators in 7 categories including water transfer reservoirs, waste collection centers, water and wastewater treatment centers, green use and parks, brown and barren lands, fault lines, and air pollution based on existing land use studies and revision The detailed plan of Tehran city areas was extracted. In the following, for the spatialization of the studied indicators at the level of the texture of the regions, the method (Tracking Analyst Tools) has been used in the network analysis process (Spline Tools) in the ArcGIS software environment. In the second part, experts and elites (25 people) were asked to identify the most important components affecting Determining environmental-ecological resilience within the next 10 years. Finally, 18 variables were determined by Delphi, and MIC MAC software is used for data analysis. Results and discussion: In the analysis of the effect-dependency matrix, it is necessary to pay attention to the arrangement and ecological spatial distribution of the metropolis of Tehran with the model of future research in the framework of Figure 5(t). The pattern of this distribution will have a very direct relationship with the stability or instability of the environmental-ecological resilience system in the Tehran metropolis with a forward-looking approach; In such a way that stable systems, while having indicators with a high degree of influence and effectiveness, the variables also have a normal distribution in other levels of the diagram. And in unstable systems, the distribution of variables does not have the same normal pattern, and most of the indicators tend to be high or low. Therefore, according to the analysis, it can be found that the environmental-ecological resilience system of the Tehran metropolis is in an unstable state by considering the effect-dependency analysis diagram, and it indicates the instability of the influencing variables and the continuity of their influence on other variables. Each of the variables is placed in a certain place in the diagram according to the degree of influence. According to Figure 5(t), the position of the variables in the diagram indicates their status in the system and their role in the dynamics and evolution of the system in the future. Conclusion: The results of the evaluation, while at a high level, comply with the realities surrounding urban resilience in Tehran, in such a way that in the framework of prospective studies and by using the scenario approach, it is possible to measure the general state of resilience, and model Its stability or instability was also found from how the variables are spatially distributed on the level of graphs and figures output from Mic Mac software. Also, the almost high percentage of the filling factor (98%) in the research variables confirms the validity and reliability of the research tools at an almost high level. The information obtained from Figure 5(p) confirms the fact that ecological environmental resilience in Tehran metropolis is unstable and in such a way that the continuation of the current situation will lead to the formation of a disaster scenario and in the best case, if the current situation continues, the environmental resilience in Tehran metropolis and the continuation of the current drought situation, limited attention to the water resources management situation, the continuation of the current unfavorable situation and the destruction of the region's ecosystem, the ecological pressure on the resources, the continuation of the current situation of planning to improve the state of land use management and the growth of incompatible industrial uses within the regions which will ultimately lead to the continuation of the unfavorable situation of instability.
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