تبیین متغیرهای زیست محیطی- کالبدی زیست پذیری با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (محدوده مورد مطالعه: بافت فرسوده منطقه 1 شهر ساری)
محورهای موضوعی : برنامه ریزی شهری
مصطفی احمدی فولادی
1
,
صدرالدین متولی
2
,
غلامرضا جانباز قبادی
3
,
سارا غلامی
4
1 - گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نور، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی وحد نور
3 - گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نور، ایران
4 - گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نور، ایران
کلید واژه: زیست پذیری شهری, بافت فرسوده شهری, متغیرهای زیست محیطی- کالبدی, آینده پژوهی, منطقه 1شهر ساری,
چکیده مقاله :
عناصر زیست محیطی- کالبدی شهری هسته ی زیست پذیری را تشکیل می دهند که در صورت عدم مطلوبیت، آینده زیستی نسل های بعدی و کیفیت زندگی شهروندان را در وضعیت بحرانی قرار خواهند داد. از آنجایی که زیست پذیری شهری به معنای واقعی به مکان، زمان و به سیستم ارزیابی کننده بستگی دارد و کیفیت زیستی بافت فرسوده‌ی منطقه یک شهر ساری که قسمت اعظمی از هسته‌ی مرکزی شهر را تشکیل میدهد، رو به اضمحلال است؛ پژوهش حاضر با هدف تبیین متغیرهای زیست محیطی- کالبدی زیست پذیری در بافت های فرسوده با رویکرد آینده پژوهی انجام شده است، تا تحلیل روابط متغیرهای زیست پذیری در سیستم شهری از چشم انداز آینده نگرانه برخوردار گردد. در همین راستا روش‌شناسی پژوهش به صورت توصیفی- تحلیلی و از لحاظ هدف گذاری کاربردی می باشد. جمع آوری داده ها و اطلاعات هم به صورت اسنادی و میدانی بوده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل 50 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان حوزه برنامه ریزی شهری بوده اند که به صورت نمونه گیری هدفمند انتخاب گردیدند. همچنین برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزارهای SPSS ( برای تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی) و MICMAC (برای محاسبات اثرات متقاطع) بهره گرفته شد. یافته‌ها بیان‌گر آن است که؛ درجه پر شدگی برابر با (88/60) است که نشان از تأثیر نسبتأ زیاد عوامل بر هم بود. همچنین اثر گذارترین متغیرها از دیدگاه خبرگان به ترتیب؛ وجود فضای سبز و استقرار پارک‌ها هر کدام با 1385 امتیاز و درجه دمای مناسب با 1235 امتیاز بوده اند. متغیر عدم وزش باد شدید با 936 امتیاز، پراکنش درختچه ها و بوته ها با 898 امتیاز، جمع آوری منظم پسماند با 861 امتیاز، سیستم مناسب دفع فاضلاب با 823 امتیاز، و دفع آب‌های سطحی با 711 امتیاز به ترتیب رتبه های 4 تا 8 را به لحاظ اثرگذاری از دیدگاه خبرگان کسب کرده‌اند. با تحلیل ارتباط پراکنش معیارها ناپایداری سیستم نیز قابل تشخیص شد؛ که برای دستیابی به پایداری و سطح مطلوب فضای بافت فرسوده، تعاملات خاص بین زیر سیستم های شهری در عناصر زیست محیطی- کالبدی ضروری است.
Environmental and physical elements of the city form its livability, which, if not be desirable, will put the biological future of the next generations and the quality of life of citizens in a critical situation. Since urban livability depends on place, time and evaluation system and the biological quality of the worn-out texture of this area of Sari, which forms a large part of the central core of the city, is deteriorating, this research seeks to explain the physical-environmental variables of livability in worn-out textures with future research approach, so that the analysis of the relationships between livability variables in the urban system will have a futuristic perspective. The research methodology is descriptive-analytical and practical in terms of its goals. Data collection has been done in the form of documents and survey. The statistical population of the research included 50 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, who were selected by purposive sampling technique. SPSS software (for exploratory factor analysis) and MICMAC software (for cross effects calculations) were used for data analysis. The findings indicate that: The degree of filling is equal to (60.88), which indicates the relatively high influence of the factors on each other. Also, from the experts" point of view, influencing variables have been identified respectively; the existence of green spaces with 1385 points, the establishment of parks with 1385 points and appropriate temperature with 1235 points. The variable of the absence of strong wind with 936 points, the distribution of shrubs and bushes with 898 points, the regular collection of waste with 861 points, the appropriate sewage disposal system with 823 points, and the disposal of surface water with 711 points ranked 4 to 8, respectively. By analyzing the correlation of the distribution of criteria, the instability of the system has been detected; and in order to achieve the stability and desired level of worn-out texture, specific interactions between urban sub-systems in environmental-physical elements are necessary. Extended Abstract Introduction With increasing population and rapid urbanization, livability has become a significant topic in urban planning. Livability refers to creating suitable living conditions in social, economic, and environmental dimensions and providing equal opportunities for all city residents. In deteriorated urban areas, this concept involves improving the current state of these regions and enhancing the quality of urban spaces. Sari, as an example of a city with historical and deteriorated areas, faces challenges such as air and noise pollution, waste accumulation, lack of proper infrastructure, and unbalanced development. These challenges, with time and population growth, could severely impact the livability of its residents. To address these issues, it is essential to use a foresight approach and precise planning. This study aims to identify the environmental and physical variables of livability with a focus on foresight and seeks to determine the key factors influencing the future livability of deteriorated areas. Methodology The present research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in nature, utilizing documentary-survey methods. A documentary and library study method was employed to gather existing viewpoints, theories, and experiences. Data collection tools included observation, questionnaires, and note-taking. The field method involved a Delphi survey of experts, with 50 experts selected through purposive sampling. For data analysis, SPSS software was used for exploratory factor analysis and MICMAC software for cross-impact analysis. This research was conducted in three main stages. First, livability variables (indicators) were extracted through a review of related sources. Then, exploratory factor analysis was used to cluster variables across different dimensions. In the final stage, key variables impacting the livability of the deteriorated area under study were identified using cross-impact calculations and matrix analysis. To ensure face validity and accurately measure the concepts and indicators of the questionnaire, content and face validity were employed. Thus, the questionnaire was considered valid. Cronbach's alpha was used for initial reliability estimation, yielding a value of 0.731 for all questions, indicating the high reliability of the questionnaire. Results and discussion This research utilized a Delphi method survey involving 50 experts (26 men, 24 women) with an average age of 37. The experts specialized in housing planning, urban regeneration, and foresight and were selected based on their knowledge, experience, and familiarity with the study area. The research aimed to explore livability factors in the deteriorated areas of Sari’s first district. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted in four main stages, assessing sample adequacy, forming a correlation matrix, explaining variance, and rotating factor loadings. The KMO index was 0.729, indicating sufficient variables for factor extraction. The study identified key variables such as green spaces, parks, suitable temperature, and waste management as crucial for maintaining system stability. Additionally, the analysis highlighted the strong dependency of natural landscapes and architecture on these factors. The matrix analysis confirmed the high reliability of the questionnaire, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.731, and showed that eight variables, including green spaces and waste management, were most influential. The study emphasized the importance of green spaces in mitigating air pollution and enhancing livability, especially in deteriorated urban areas. Conclusion The results of livability experiences indicate that livability is a temporal and spatial phenomenon dependent on contextual and local conditions. Therefore, livability criteria are not interchangeable and must be understood and assessed within different temporal and spatial contexts. Effective planning for livability in deteriorated urban areas and understanding future conditions require suitable planning mechanisms based on innovative approaches. This study explores livability elements within a future research framework to provide a forward-looking perspective on the relationships between livability variables in urban systems. In the deteriorated area of District 1 in Sari, after identifying variables using exploratory factor analysis, the study focused on identifying key drivers and impacts of livability variables. The results highlight that green spaces, park establishment, appropriate temperature, absence of strong winds, distribution of shrubs and plants, regular waste collection, proper sewage systems, and surface water drainage are critical variables for livability in the studied area. Among these eight variables, green spaces and park establishment, each with a score of 1385, and appropriate temperature with a score of 1235, have a significant impact on other variables. The Sari Housing and Urban Development Organization has transferred 425.6 hectares of land in Sari for residential and non-residential development between 1980 and 2008, leading to considerable loss of green spaces due to land use changes. Studies by Abdi et al. (2021) revealed that District 1 has poor green space coverage and that reduced green space in Sari affects temperature increases. This issue, emphasized by experts, indicates that appropriate temperature directly impacts air quality. Additionally, the study finds that variables related to waste management, surface water drainage, and sewage systems are also crucial for improving livability. Findings from Zirovani et al. (2022) support the importance of these indicators in livability, indicating that poor infrastructure exacerbates livability issues. The study further reveals the critical nature of dual-function indicators, such as temperature, green spaces, and plant distribution, which contribute to the instability of the livability system. To enhance livability, especially in deteriorated urban areas, it is essential to address these strategic indicators and ensure effective interactions among urban subsystems. Without maintaining environmental quality, cities risk becoming hostile environments and missing opportunities for optimizing spaces with improved environmental performance.
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