Measuring the indicators and potential of infill development in Qazvin city
محورهای موضوعی : Creative City DesignVahid Atashgaran 1 , Seyyed Mohammadreza Khatibi 2 , Maryam Khastou 3
1 - PhD student of Urban Planning, Department of Urban Planning, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
کلید واژه: potential measurement, dilapidated tissues, Qazvin city, infill development,
چکیده مقاله :
Lack of attention to the quality of the concept of development in urban management, especially the development of internal development, has created many problems for today's cities. Indiscriminate and scattered expansion of the city, increase in the costs of urban services, increase in the use of new land are among these problems. However, most of the time there is space for development within the city boundaries and one of the suitable options for development is to use the intermediate development approach,which should be considered in big cities. Therefore, in this study, whit using an analytical-descriptive method, development potentials and important indicators of infill development in Qazvin city are determined. For this purpose, by collecting the views of a sample of people living in this city and urban management specialists, with using the hierarchical method of AHP, the weight and prioritization of the important criteria of infill development were determined and then in GIS software the weights obtained from the Dimtel method are multiplied in the layers, and finally, the layers are overlapped by using Fuzzy Overlay Gamma, and the final map is obtained, which determines the capacity of infill development of Qazvin city. The results showed that the variables of management and economic group are in the weakest condition in the target neighborhoods in Qazvin. According to experts' opinions, among the 13 important criteria for feasibility study of the development of Qazvin city, 3 building quality criteria such as floor of building( with 0.229), age of building(with 0.186) and slope( with 0.150) had the greatest impact on land suitability for Qazvin's infill development. Another results showed that the detailed zoning map of Qazvin city shows that out of the total 64132000 square meters of Qazvin lands, 6.57% of the lands are completely suitable for infill development, 15.45% of the suitable lands, 26.21% somewhat unsuitable, 31.19% unsuitable And 19% is completely inappropriate.The amount of development of the city in the next 5 years was determined to be 1,411,000 square meters. Also, the amount of land that can be considered as reserve land was estimated to be around 3924000. Therefore, based on the findings of the research, Qazvin city has a good potential for infill development and using sustainable urban growth benefits.
Measuring the indicators and potential of infill development in Qazvin city
Ateshgeran
Abstract
Lack of attention to the quality of the concept of development in urban management, especially the development of internal development, has created many problems for today's cities. Indiscriminate and scattered expansion of the city, increase in the costs of urban services, increase in the use of new land are among these problems. However, most of the time there is space for development within the city boundaries and one of the suitable options for development is to use the intermediate development approach,which should be considered in big cities. Therefore, in this study, whit using an analytical-descriptive method, development potentials and important indicators of infill development in Qazvin city are determined. For this purpose, by collecting the views of a sample of people living in this city and urban management specialists, with using the hierarchical method of AHP, the weight and prioritization of the important criteria of infill development were determined and then in GIS software the weights obtained from the Dimtel method are multiplied in the layers, and finally, the layers are overlapped by using Fuzzy Overlay Gamma, and the final map is obtained, which determines the capacity of infill development of Qazvin city. The results showed that the variables of management and economic group are in the weakest condition in the target neighborhoods in Qazvin. According to experts' opinions, among the 13 important criteria for feasibility study of the development of Qazvin city, 3 building quality criteria such as floor of building( with 0.229), age of building(with 0.186) and slope( with 0.150) had the greatest impact on land suitability for Qazvin's infill development. Another results showed that the detailed zoning map of Qazvin city shows that out of the total 64132000 square meters of Qazvin lands, 6.57% of the lands are completely suitable for infill development, 15.45% of the suitable lands, 26.21% somewhat unsuitable, 31.19% unsuitable And 19% is completely inappropriate.The amount of development of the city in the next 5 years was determined to be 1,411,000 square meters. Also, the amount of land that can be considered as reserve land was estimated to be around 3924000. Therefore, based on the findings of the research, Qazvin city has a good potential for infill development and using sustainable urban growth benefits.
Key words: potential measurement, infill development, Qazvin city, dilapidated tissues
1. Introduction
Normally, urban development occurs horizontally to the outside of the city in the form of new or additional structures. Due to the importance of quality of life for residents, peace, sound and air pollution, traffic, etc., the middle and prosperous social class are attracted to the city outskirts. This has fueled the deterioration of the tissues by emptying the middle tissues of the cities and replacing its residents with lower economic class. Accordingly, in the process of preparing urban development plans, planners place great emphasis on the development of vacant land in worn-out structures and the maximum use of existing public facilities such as urban infrastructure. Urban planning has paid attention to infill development as a solution for the revival of gray lands and worn-out tissues that organize both the urban form and the compactness of urban areas. Mian infill development has treated it as a solution to sprawl that both increases density and revitalizes run-down neighborhoods [1-2]. According to the majority of experts the development of the existing urban tissues or the infill development has a tremendous impact on the density, form and shape of the city [3]. In other words, the infill development of the use of land and inefficient spaces within the city in line with urban development is the goal of this approach [4]. Infill development emphasizes on the infill development of the existing tissues in order to repair the gaps in the neighborhoods to some extent [5]. Infill development is characterized by a healthy mix of functions to support transportation and a wider variety of services and amenities that bring vitality and vitality to communities. Despite the many advantages of infill development, there are a number of challenges and obstacles that limit this approach. infill development faces numerous political, economic and logistic obstacles due to the social, political and geographical situation of the localities and cities [6]. In normal situations instead of filling the gaps in the fabric of the city, the planners leave the vacant land in the city centers to get cheaper land on the outskirts of the city [7]. According to Downs(2010), buildings are derelict when "structures are converted to higher density uses than they were designed for" [8]. In some big cities, the surrounding urban fabric and zoning changes very slowly in response to new demand. In this situation, residents with higher incomes demand a better quality of life, this contradiction in the urban fabric and social life is the starting point of the problems of the middle fabrics of the cities. This process unbalances the relationship between urban viability, tissue wear, urban form and renovation costs, and when these factors occur, a fracture is created in the overall urban form. A large number of buildings are very damaged in these conditions and their negative impact on the surrounding environment is evident [9]. Therefore, paying attention to the worn-out textures, their redevelopment and the negative effects of this wear and tear on the urban form can be an important issue that affects the whole city in different dimensions.
Examining the results of several studies shows that sprawled urban development is associated with the loss of urban fringe open space, land use change (which is usually agricultural) and the exponential increase in new infrastructure costs [10]. In this situation, it is a smart idea to reuse and un used more environment. This smart idea is introduced as one of the urban components of smart urban growth. Smart growth creates a supportive environment to channel some of the regional growth into cities. infill development is a key component of smart growth [11]. Compilation of construction guidelines of the engineering system, municipal laws, sustainable development strategies, including infill development, has created a national standard for the development of sustainable urban communities. This new urbanism movement supports the redevelopment of urban contexts under the title of interdisciplinary development, because these guidelines and strategies in the urban planning laws have explicitly stated that the development pattern should not erase or eradicate the urban edges [12]. In Iran, several projects at the regional and urban levels in the past have investigated the development of inter-urban expansion [13,14,15,16,17,18,19]. These studies have been of interest in other countries as well, and they have always been addressed as a dimension of urban planning [20, 21]. Different definitions of land use types in the development of inter-regional development can be found in the urban literature [22]. In order to design and implement the potential analysis and evaluation of the urban inter-incremental development, it is necessary to differentiate the sites based on the type, simple and clear. Brownfields, vacant lands, or underutilized lands generally meet these criteria, while also including the most important type of land use suitable for infill development.
According to expertsn, to implement this approach, old, worn out and inefficient urban tissues are revived, improved and renovated, waste and abandoned urban lands are put to use and connected to the daily life of citizens [23]. In general, growth from the inside is emphasized as a means to realize the smart growth of the city and to achieve a sustainable form of the city's body, in contrast to the vast and scattered suburbs. This intervention, as a comprehensive and integrated narrative of urban development and restoration, is a flow that, on the one hand, pays attention to all aspects and limitations of development in the heart of the city, and on the other hand, provides the opportunity to transform it into a tool or it is a way to reach development [24]. infill development will lead to better and more effective use of existing facilities and services in the target areas; which in most cases increases the value of properties and the costs of public services such as water, sewage, sidewalks, and public security will decrease. In addition, it helps to reach the population threshold necessary to provide needs such as green spaces, parks and services of this kind [25]. This type of development is considered as a tactic of the regional smart growth strategy and usually includes three main activities: first, the construction of new buildings on land that is not developed or less developed in the existing conditions. Second, physical rehabilitation of currently unusable buildings and third, reuse and compatible with the previous form and function of these buildings. The infill development approach tries to solve urban problems through a comprehensive strategy or a clearly defined vision and in a systematic way [27]. In this article, the capacity of infill development is investigated, focusing on the integration of new development with existing patterns, to help make more informed decisions when preparing or reviewing urban plans in worn-out contexts or urban zoning and planning for development. Vacant lands have been re-evaluated in the urban form of Qazvin city.
2. literature review and Theoretical Foundation
2.1. The meaning and concept of infill development
After the 1970s, strong reactions to the growth and expansion of cities began after the Second World War, and the strategy of "endogenous development" was formed to deal with this problem. In this regard, "infill development", which is a subset of the smart growth movement, is considered the simplest strategy to realize endogenous development, which was emphasized and given serious attention[28]. The theories of recent decades emphasize that the lands and textures within the city are also the subject of development and settlement and providing services to the ever-increasing population of cities. These theories claim that in order to respond to the development, instead of occupying the untouched lands that have remained natural, the capacity of urban tissues can be used. They believe that the process of exogenous urban development that has caused many problems should be eliminated through endogenous development as much as possible [29]. After the discussion of endogenous development in the Habitat conference In 1976 in Canada, the concept of infill development was officially defined for the first time in 1979 by the American Real Estate Association and was used for economic purposes, which can be said to be the simplest type of endogenous development[30]. This form of proposed development does not have a very complicated concept and usually the same definition is provided. Intermediate development is "the process of developing and reusing empty or unused parts (or sections) among existing urban areas that were previously developed"[14]. Therefore infill development can happen in places where the land is not fully used or its inappropriate use compared to the surrounding activities. including large urban areas, villages connected to the city, urban centers, or in areas with accumulated development that are considered for higher population in the master plan of the city [9]. infill development is a combination of mixed-use development and residential techniques and strategies to provide capital housing or to meet the needs of different types of housing. In addition to that, in the strategies of settlement, in-between development plays a critical and critical role in protecting the land, creating social centers and providing a suitable alternative instead of scattered development [9].
This new look at development, which was formed from 1979 onwards, has led to the formation of movements that, although they have different names, are not very different in their nature, and each refers to certain aspects of endogenous development. Smart Growth, New Urbanism, Placemaking, Compact City, are examples of these movements. At smaller levels, these movements have proposed some types of development, which we can mention: Redevelopment Area Plan(RAP), Business Improvement Development(BID), Transit Oriented Development(TOD, Infill Development, Mixed-use Development (MD) and among them, Infill development has gained a special place[28].
2.2. Research background
Farshchin et al (2015), have discussed the theoretical explanation of endogenous development and its approaches. The results of this research are to find two basic principles governing the procedural concepts in the development of intermediates. These two principles are respectively: "Principle of improvement and promotion" and "Principle of contextualism"[28]. Shafaati et al(2009) in theoretical explanation indicate the scheme of the infill development is one of the means of intelligent progress and in the case of accomplishment is an outstanding evidence of stable development[31]. Noorian et al. (2016) in a descriptive - analytical study with using the hierarchical AHP method, determining the zoning criteria of urban areas in Mashhad city, determined the importance and weight of each of these criteria. The results of this study showed that the criteria of density, texture characteristics, accessibility and distance from land uses had the most weight and importance respectively[32]. In another study, Jeliz et al. (2022) with using the FAHP method investigated the strategic role of infill development in the regeneration of worn-out tissues in Tbariz city. In this study, taking into account the indicators and considerations of infill development in the form of 15 target indicators, the feasibility of intermediate development in the 8 regions of Tabriz municipality has been investigated on a case-by-case basis. The results show that the lack of management and accurate planning for revitalization and renovation is the most important pest in relation to the regeneration of this part of Tabriz city[33]. Beni Hashemi et al.(2014) in a study titled "intermediate development in worn-out urban tissues of Khani Abad neighborhood of Tehran" showed that the final form of land for inter-media development within the scope of the research has a high potential in brown lands and worn-out tissues[34].
2.3. Criteria for measuring the infill development of the city
The first important step in any city is to prepare a number of indicators that represent the current state of the city in terms of internal development. Since all these actions and organizing spaces take place within the existing cities, it is less visible. That is, in order to make the internal development of the city more tangible, it is necessary to first design criteria by which the internal development of each city can be measured according to the relevant standards.
2.4. Advantages of middleware development
With the attractiveness of growth in the existing communities, the infill development reduces the growth pressure on the rural areas around the cities and provides appropriate and sufficient use of land, infrastructure facilities and services and can increase the quality of life in the old communities. Inclusive development enhances the characteristics and viability of existing communities. A successful integration strategy at the local level protects or restores physical-spatial continuity to strengthen the neighborhood, protect historical parts, create compatible uses that complement the characteristics and needs of the existing community.
According to the presented foundation, it can be stated that firstly, infill development can be followed at urban and rural levels, but it is followed more in urban areas. In addition, according to the characteristics of each city and residential area, there can be certain criteria that will have different weights. At the same time, there are also important challenges to achieve infill development, which should be identified according to the specific characteristics of each region and adjusted and eliminated with basic planning.
3. Research Methods
The present research is applied research in terms of its nature and is descriptive-analytical in terms of method. which in the descriptive part using library and documentary studies, information, data and required layers (land base) of research from sources and centers available in the libraries of universities and research institutes and various organizations and departments (Qazvin Housing and Urbanization, Qazvin Municipality and...) have been collected. This research has been done in two parts. In the first part, using statistical analysis (T-test and Friedman test) and relying on survey data (resulting from residents' questionnaire) to analyze the status of infill development indicators in five social sectors. physical, managerial, economic and environmental aspects have been discussed. In the second part of this study, relying on the opinion of experts and using the theoretical foundations and background of the research, regarding the selection of research criteria which include 14 main indicators (slope, direction of slope, distance from the fault, distance from the river, distance from the flood path, distance from main roads, distance from educational centers, distance from medical centers, distance from green space, distance from military centers, zoning, age of buildings, number of floors and quality of buildings) were selected and investigated in the city of Qazvin. The analysis model in this research is actually a process for measuring the capacity of inter-building development in built structures in Qazvin city. In order to examine the opportunities and potentials of the infill development in the city of Qazvin in worn-out contexts, indicators and items have been considered for each of the dimensions, which in order to reduce the amount of information, are all evaluated as indicators as follows. Since the value of alpha error (Sig) for all these variables is equal to 0.00 and this value is lower than 0.05 from the acceptable error for the test. In this way, it can be argued that the test is significant at a confidence level above 95% and it can be argued that the difference observed in all items with the average of the community is significant and noticeable.
In order to check the impact of each of the intermediate indicators, it was necessary to firstly identify the urban intermediate criteria with an emphasis on Qazvin city and then examine all these existing criteria and according to the prioritization of each of these The criteria can be used to identify the main potentials of this type of development in the city of Qazvin, with an emphasis on worn-out urban tissues. For this purpose, this action has been measured using the questionnaire of experts and using AHP statistical analysis in GIS software. Then, the weights obtained from the Dimtel method are multiplied in the layers, and finally, the layers are overlapped by using Fuzzy Overlay Gamma, and the final map is obtained, which tells the capacity of infill development of Qazvin city.
Hierarchical analysis method was used to weight the identified criteria and sub-criteria. In the AHP method, all factors and criteria are compared two by two and placed in the weight matrix. In this method, the comparison scale is placed in the range of 1 to 9;
So that the value 1 indicates the equal importance of two factors and the number 9 indicates the very important importance of one factor compared to another factor. To form the matrix, prioritize and determine the importance coefficient (weight) of the criteria and sub-criteria and compare two by two between each of the criteria and sub-criteria, a nine-quantitative hourly scale was used, which was done through the Expert Choice software (Figure 1). Weighting and prioritization of criteria and sub-criteria were done using the opinions of experts in different organizations of Qazvin city.
4. Discussion and results
4.1. Evaluation of the main influencing factors in the process of infill development in Qazvin city
As mentioned in the methodology, the analysis of this study depends on two parts: qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. First, the qualitative aspects of this study, which include social, economic, physical, environmental and management indicators, are carried out using questionnaires and statistical analysis tools, and the second part is based on spatial information and fixed data in urban planning laws using It is done from AHP analysis and GIS software.First, the data obtained from the questionnaire and the analysis of the relevant indicators will be analyzed in order to get a general view of the conditions of the infill development in the city of Ghozni. For this purpose, a questionnaire based on a statistical sample of urban residents has been used to check the status of the specified dimensions in the process of infill development in Qazvin city. These dimensions have been selected and evaluated in five main sections. Since the value of alpha error (Sig) for all these variables is equal to 0.00 and this value is lower than 0.05 from the acceptable error for the test. In this way, it can be argued that the test is significant at a confidence level above 95% and it can be argued that the difference observed in all items with the average of the community is significant and noticeable. For this purpose, according to the information collected by the residents' questionnaire, the impact and importance of each of the desired dimensions in relation to the development of the urban inter-city in Qazvin will be evaluated and investigated.
4.2. Assessing the challenges facing the indicators of the physical dimension
In order to examine the physical dimension using the collected data, six main challenges with twenty-seven items, which can be seen in Table No. (1), were evaluated. These challenges are all directly or indirectly affected by the urban management system. The analysis of the collected data in terms of a sample T-Tech test shows: in terms of physical dimension, from the highest to the lowest average, the indices of access to local services (3.15), public transportation (11.1) 3), vitality (3), environment quality (2.91) and urban facilities and equipment (2.55), visual quality (2.44). In the meantime, the quality of the environment, urban facilities and equipment, and the visual quality is lower than the average of the society in a critical state. which is shown in red in the table. In terms of Friedman's ranking test, the indicators that got the lowest average rank have more instability in the physical dimension, which shows the seriousness of the challenge at the target tissue level. These indicators, in the same order, rank 1 to 6 in the T-test and are considered as the most important influential components in the development of infill development in the physical dimension and require more attention.
Table 1: Physical condition of the statistical sample
Dimensions | Indicator | Number of items | The mean of the t test | Friedman rank average | rank | Significance level |
physical dimension | Access to local services | 8 | 3.15 | 3.65 | 6 | 0.000 |
The quality of the environment | 5 | 2.91 | 3.30 | 3 | 0.000 | |
Vitality | 3 | 3.00 | 3.73 | 4 | 0.000 | |
Visual quality | 3 | 2.44 | 2.60 | 1 | 0.000 | |
Municipal facilities and equipment | 4 | 3.11 | 3.83 | 5 | 0.000 | |
Public transportation | 3 | 3.11 | 3.83 | 5 | 0.000 |
4.3. Assessing the status of social dimension indicators
In relation to the social dimension, including 3 indicators with eleven items as described in table number (2), it has been specified. The analysis of the collected data in terms of t-test shows that the spatial connection and belonging (3.20) is higher than the average of the community. Neighborhood security (2.72) and participation and solidarity (2.73) are lower than the community average, which can be seen in red in the table. In terms of Friedman's ranking test, the highest to the lowest average, in the same order as the T test, is in unsuitable to relatively suitable conditions (ranks 1 to 3). According to the results of these indicators, respectively, there is a higher priority for the implementation of urban regeneration policies. They have in Qazvin.
Table 2: The status of the social dimension in terms of the statistical sample
Dimensions | Indicator | Number of items | The mean of the t test | Friedman rank average | rank | Significance level |
Social | Neighborhood security | 2 | 2.72 | 1.90 | 2 | 0.000 |
Continuity and place belonging | 3 | 3.20 | 2.56 | 3 | 0.000 | |
Participation and solidarity | 5 | 2.73 | 1.54 | 1 | 0.000 |
4.4. Assessing the status of economic indicators
In order to examine the challenges of the economic dimension, three indicators with eleven items are mentioned in table (3). As can be seen, the statistical sample selected in the target contexts in Qazvin, from the total of four evaluated indicators, the index of providing living expenses (2.68), business (2.70), housing (2.81) It is lower than the average of the average society; Therefore, it is in a critical state. which is shown in red in the table. Also, the tourism index (3.27) is close to the average of the society, which does not show a good situation. In terms of Friedman's ranking test, indicators of providing living expenses, business and housing are in poor condition. In this way, it shows the order of priority from rank 1 to 4.
Table 3: the status of the economic dimension in terms of the statistical sample
Dimensions | Indicator | Number of items | The mean of the t test | Friedman rank average | rank | Significance level |
Economic | Providing living expenses | 5 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 1 | 0.000 |
Business | 4 | 2.62 | 1.95 | 2 | 0.000 | |
Housing | 2 | 2.81 | 2.10 | 3 | 0.000 |
4.5. Assessing the status of environmental dimension indicators
In order to examine the upcoming challenges in the environmental dimension, two indicators with five items as described in Table (4) have been used. The results of this evaluation indicate that the environmental pollution index has a mean (2.90) in the t-test, which is lower than the average of the society and has the lowest score in terms of Friedman's ranking. The noise pollution index with an average of 3.58 is close to the average of the society and in terms of ranking, it is in priority after environmental pollution in environmental dimensions. As a result, in order to reach the desired situation, it is necessary to pay more attention to environmental pollution and after that noise pollution. The analysis of the collected information indicates that the average of these indicators as challenges in this dimension (3.24) is close to the average of the society (number 3).
Table 4: The state of the environmental dimension in terms of the statistical sample
Dimensions | Indicator | Number of items | The mean of the t test | Friedman rank average | rank | Significance level |
environmental | Noise | 2 | 3.58 | 1.78 | 2 | 0.000 |
environmental pollution | 3 | 2.90 | 1.14 | 3 | 0.000 |
4.6. Challenges facing the future of urban management
In order to examine the management dimension using the collected data, three main challenges have been evaluated with eleven items, which are shown in table (5). These challenges are all directly or indirectly affected by the urban management system. The analysis of the collected data in terms of a sample T-Tech test shows that: in terms of management dimension, from the highest to the lowest average, the indices of urban management (2.41), institutional participation (2.32) and facilities are Mali (2/15), allocates to himself. In the meantime, all three indicators as challenges are lower than the average of the society in a critical state. which are shown in red in the table. In terms of Friedman's ranking test, the indicators that got the lowest average rating have more instability in the management dimension, which shows the seriousness of the challenge at the level of the target tissues. These indicators, in the same order, rank 1 to 3 in the t-test and are considered as the most important influencing dimensions in the process of infill development in the managerial dimension and require more attention.
Table 5: The status of the indicators of the management dimension in terms of the statistical sample
Dimensions | Indicator | Number of items | The mean of the t test | Friedman rank average | rank | Significance level |
managerial | financial facilities | 3 | 2.15 | 3.35 | 1 | 0.000 |
Urban Management | 4 | 2.41 | 3.30 | 2 | 0.000 | |
Institutional partnership | 4 | 2.32 | 2.88 | 3 | 0.000 |
For each of these dimensions, the infill development of some indicators is in a more unstable state than other dimensions as follows:
§ Unstable situation in terms of physical indicators: visual quality, urban facilities and equipment, and environmental quality.
§ Unstable situation in terms of social indicators: participation and solidarity and neighborhood security.
§ Unstable situation in terms of economic indicators: provision of living expenses, business and housing.
§ Unstable situation in terms of environmental indicators: environmental pollution.
§ Unstable situation in terms of management indicators: participation, urban management and facilities and investment
These factors are considered to be the most important obstacles in the future realization of the intermodal development plans in the dilapidated context of Qazvin city and that these dimensions and items, in order of priority, have a greater impact on the realization of intermodal urban development in the research area. Among these dimensions, it can be concluded that the variables of the management and economic group are at the lowest level in the target neighborhoods in Qazvin. As a result, this dimension has the most important role in controlling the stability of worn tissue. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to the aspect of urban and economic management and then to other dimensions in the process of urban development.
Table 6: Prioritization of the main influencing dimensions in the process of infill development in Qazvin city
Priority | Significance level | Friedman's ranking test | Sample t-tech test | Dimensions |
Rank average | Average | |||
2 | 0.000 | 3.08 | 2.80 | Economic |
3 | 0.000 | 3.33 | 2.86 | physical |
4 | 0.000 | 3.47 | 3.22 | social |
5 | 0.000 | 3.54 | 3.24 | environmental |
1 | 0.000 | 3.01 | 2.34 | managerial |
Therefore, considering that among the intermediate dimensions; In order: economic, physical, social, environmental and managerial indicators have the lowest average and the lowest rank compared to the society. It can be said that these factors are in an unstable state, respectively, which indicates the decline of the qualitative values of residence in the research area.
4.7. Analysis of the feasibility study of the development of Qazvin city
After conducting qualitative analysis in the first stage and identifying 5 important social, economic, physical, environmental and managerial indicators as well as the main dimensions of each of these indicators, we will continue with quantitative methods in the second stage of the research and proceed to the feasibility of the development of Qazvin city.
In this section,at the first step we has examined criteria were specified in the form of natural and physical criteria in the form of 13 criteria.The results of experts' opinions have been evaluated based on a questionnaire in the form of a binary matrix. Figure (1) shows the final weight of the criteria in the AHP method. According to this figure, the most weight has been assigned to the building quality criteria such as floor of building( with 0.229), age of building(with 0.186) and slope( with 0.150) in the sense that it has had the greatest impact on land suitability for Qazvin's infill development. After that, the zonation regulation(with 0.015) has The lowest weight in infoll development stratege. Also, the inconsistency coefficient in this weighting is equal to 0.07, then inconsistency is acceptable.
Figure 1: Output of layer weighting for middleware development.
4.8. The potential of the range in terms of the feasibility of infill development
At second stage of quantitative research, the Fuzzy Overlay spatial analysis plugin was used to combine and overlap the fuzzy maps created in the GIS environment, and using three fuzzy gamma levels (0.9, 0.8 and 0.8), three land suitability maps were created.
The fuzzy gamma operator is defined in terms of fuzzy product and fuzzy sum according to the following formula:
μ Combination =(sum fuzzy)2 *(Product fuzzy)1-ϒ
In these relations, element r is the variable determined in the range of zero and one; When r is equal to one, the combination is the same as fuzzy algebraic addition, and when r is equal to zero, the combination is equal to fuzzy algebraic multiplication. The correct selection of the variable r produces values in the output that are compatible with the increasing effect of algebraic addition and the decreasing effect of fuzzy algebraic multiplication. In the applications of the fuzzy model in positioning, fuzzy operators are often used to integrate the existing spatial data, while in order to receive the accurate output from this model, a fuzzy device must be designed so that the factor maps are converted into fuzzy sets as the input of this system. Then the maps should be combined according to the pre-determined rules[35],[36]. In this research, we have eight index criteria for locating, three of which are slope raster, slope direction and toll usage after reclassifying in the fuzzy membership environment, their membership functions between zero and one were normalized using linear fuzzy function and the other five criteria were Using distance functions, we defined a raster buffer for it, and after reclassifying in the fuzzy membership environment, the membership functions between zero and one were normalized using the linear fuzzy function, and finally eight variables were obtained in the Calculator Raster environment in the weights obtained through AHP. We multiplied them and in the end, they were combined with each other using Fuzzy Overlay and Fuzzy Gamma Cloud, and Qazvin urban prone points were obtained with the output of a map. Because some criteria have an increasing effect and others have a decreasing effect on the location of urban prone points, the fuzzy gamma operator r=0.7 , r = 0.8 and r = 0.9 was used in the fuzzy overlap method to locate the urban prone points of Qazvin. The best result for gamma was r=0.8. Therefore for the infill development of Qazvin city, a layer (with a gamma of 0.8) was prepared, and among them, a layer (with a gamma of 0.8) was selected, which indicated the strength and appropriateness of the lands of the city for infill development and was closer to the realities of Qazvin city lands (Figure 2). Also, in the next stage, different parts of Qazvin city are determined on the map in terms of the suitability and unsuitableness of land for infill development using the Intersect and Reclass functions by dividing the land into 5 spectrums: completely unsuitable, unsuitable, somewhat unsuitable, suitable and completely unsuitable. And the area of each was calculated in hectares and square meters (Figure 3 and Table 7). The detailed zoning map of Qazvin city shows that out of the total 6,413,2000 square meters of Qazvin land, 6.57% of land is completely suitable for infill development, 15.45% of suitable land, 26.21% somewhat unsuitable, 31.19% unsuitable and 19% completely unsuitable. is (Table 7). This case shows that most of the lands of Qazvin city for infill development are placed in the unsuitable spectrum with 31.28% and then somewhat unsuitable with 26.33% and completely suitable and suitable lands are 6.57% and 15.45% respectively. % contains percentages. According to the zoning of the current comprehensive plan of Qazvin, the final land suitability map of the city of Qazvin shows that the 1st zone, which includes the southeastern and western tissues, most of its lands are in the perfect range, and the 2nd zone, which includes the central tissues of Qazvin. It is also in the central part, it has a suitable texture and it is a part of the old and historical texture of the city, and the majority of its buildings are of restoration, demolition and historical type, most of them are in the perfect spectrum, area 3, which includes the textures of the north of the city. most of its lands are placed in the range of somewhat unsuitable and unsuitable (Figure 3). It is true that most of the lands of Qazvin city are in the unsuitable range, but suitable lands for the infill development have also been allocated a significant amount, and since the infill development emphasizes the need to use internal lands and textures, For this purpose, it is possible to use the lands that are placed in the most suitable areas and in this way, to some extent, the peripheral growth of the city is prevented and valuable urban lands are protected.
Figure 3: micro-map of land suitability zoning for infill development
|
Figure 2: final zoning map of land suitability for infill development |
Table 7: Land desirability zoning for infill development in square meters and hectares
Percentage of classes | floor area (square meters) | floor area (hectares) | Zoning classes | code |
19% | 10610538 | 1061.06 | Totally inappropriate | 1 |
31.19% | 16912391 | 1621.25 | Inappropriate | 2 |
26.21% | 15019104 | 1501.82 | Somewhat inappropriate | 3 |
15.45% | 7942501 | 793.52 | Appropriate | 4 |
6.57% | 3968200 | 367.02 | Perfectly suitable | 5 |
4.9. The role of infill development in reducing the rate of peripheral growth of the city in the horizon of 2026
In order to measure the role of infill development in preventing the peripheral growth of the city in the horizon of 2026, the exponential and per capita land growth model was used.For this purpose, it was first calculated the growth rate between 2021-2026 (1.1 percent) and then based on the obtained growth rate, the population of the city rc,dk in 2026 through the exponential growth formula Pt = Po (1+r)t where , Pt is the population of the destination year, Po is the population of the origin year, r is the growth rate and t is our time interval between years, 172834 households were predicted (Table 8).
Table 8: population forecast in 2026
Number of households 2016 | Number of households 2021 | Growth rate | Number of households 2026 |
116428 | 134112 | 1.1 | 172834 |
Table 9: estimation of the area of the city in 2026 and the impact of infill developmenton the land reserve
The amount of peripheral development during 5 years (square meters | The amount of land saved through infill development (square meters) | The amount of development in 10 years (hectares) | Area 2026 (square meters) | Area 2016 (square meters) | land per capita (square meter) |
14110000 | 3924000 | 18331000 | 119341000 | 112200000 | 98 |
In the next step, using population and land per capita (98 square meters), the area of the city in 2026 (119341000 square meters) was calculated (area = population per capita). Finally, the amount of development of the city during the next 5 years was determined according to the above calculations (14,110,000 hectares) and also the amount of land that can be considered as reserve land with the application of infill development, and according to that, the peripheral development of the city is about 3924000 was predicted (Table 9) which can be an important factor in reducing the downward trend of land and garden destruction around Qazvin city and an important step in the direction of sustainable urban development.
Therefore, according to the conducted investigations, it can be seen how the concerns regarding the population growth trend in the coming years should be taken into account with regard to the suitable places for infill development. By determining appropriate locations that are determined according to the indicators and potentials of internal development, there will be no need to destroy new lands and while preserving rare national resources, it will be easier to achieve sustainable development. This approach is a method that can be used properly in urban planning. The least benefit and advantage of using this approach is the land saving of 3924000 square meters (Table 9) that can be preserved for future generations.
5. Conclusion
The city of Qazvin, in the last few decades until now, has faced an unprecedented and unplanned and disjointed growth. Spatial physical problems, the expansion of marginalization and the formation of dilapidated structures are observed in the historical and old parts of this city located in the area of a municipality, and the imbalance in various fields of service at the level of urban areas and the proximity of incompatible uses at the level of urban areas are observed. This method of growth and expansion of the city causes an increase in transportation costs, an increase in infrastructure costs, and an increase in the cost of services per capita. The dilapidated texture of Qazvin city with about 504 hectares of urban land needs special attention. It is very important to pay attention to the principles of infill development in the areas with city capacity, as one of the basic strategies to achieve urban sustainability. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify infill development capacities in Qazvin city and prioritize them.
The results of experts' opinions showed that among the 13 important criteria for feasibility study of the development of Qazvin city, 3 building quality criteria such as floor of building( with 0.229), age of building(with 0.186) and slope( with 0.150) had the greatest impact on land suitability for Qazvin's infill development. In addition,the results of the analysis of the status of intermediate indicators from the qazvin residents' point of view showed that for infill development environmental indicators with a score of 3.24 have the best situation in the worn-out and ineffective neighborhoods of Qazvin, followed by social indicators with a score of 22.3. Therefore, the indicators of these two dimensions are higher than the average of the society. Other dimensions include economic indicators with a score of 2.80, physical indicators with a score of 2.86, and management indicators with a score of 2.88. As a result, the indicators of these three dimensions are the lowest of the society average.According to Friedman's ranking test, the challenges with the highest ranking are given priority and the first rank. Thus, environmental indicators with an average of 3.54 have the first priority, social with an average of 3.47 have the second priority, physical with an average of 3.33 and finally economic with an average of 3.08 have the last priority. Therefore, considering that among the intermediate dimensions; In order: economic, physical, social, environmental and managerial indicators have the lowest average and the lowest rank compared to the society. It can be said that these factors are in an unstable state, respectively, which indicates the decline of the qualitative values of residence in the research area.
The results of the analysis of the status of intermediate indicators according to experts showed that the most weight is given to the building quality criteria. Most of the lands of Qazvin city for infill development are placed in the unsuitable range with 31.28% percentage and then somewhat unsuitable with 26.33% percentage, and completely suitable and suitable lands include 6.69% percentage and 15.70% percentage respectively. According to the zoning of the current comprehensive plan of Qazvin, the final land suitability map of the infill development of Qazvin shows that zone 1, which includes the southeast and west textures, most of its lands are in the perfect spectrum, zone 2, which includes the textures of It is the center of Qazvin, also in the central part, it has a suitable texture and it is part of the old and historical texture of the city, and the majority of its buildings are of restoration, demolition and historical type, it is mostly placed in the perfect range, area 3, which includes the texture is in the north of the city, most of its land is in the somewhat unsuitable and unsuitable range.
By examining the results obtained from the models, it was also found that the city has a random distribution pattern and scattered growth, and the interpolation pattern of city growth, which is one of the main topics of the development of cities, can help the stability and vitality of cities and all experts and trustees Urban construction is certain that by defining the pattern of city expansion with the internal development approach, the balance between the horizontal and vertical expansion of the city can be maintained. As an example of Qazvin city, which has a scattered urban surface, it can be balanced by adopting the internal development policy. Urban balance and proportionality and finally achieved sustainable urban growth.
According to the approach of the current research, the main purpose of which was to identify and prioritize the strategies of complementary development in the designated areas, compared to other researches conducted in this field, which mostly emphasize on measuring the capacity of infill development in worn-out contexts, lands empty, brown, etc., it can be said that a new and fresh approach in the implementation of the intermediate development has been emphasized in this article; Because by using the method of cross section zoning which has a supporting role for infill development, as well as the appropriate measurement of infill development indicators in the target zone, the prioritization of infill development strategies has been done. Therefore, the use of the cross-sectional method and emphasis on infill development strategies is one of the main features of this research compared to other researches in this field. In fact, the current research has taken a step forward for the implementation of infiil development. In other words, in the present research, it has been tried to find the suitable area for the proposals of this development through a method before identifying the problems of the infiil development and presenting strategies. It should be identified that it is suitable for zoning, which has been used by the transverse cutting method.
Some findings of this study are consistent with previous studies such as the study of Noorian et al (2016), Beni Hashemi et al(2014). So the features of land and built buildings, especially certain areas, have a high share and weight in determining the priorities of infill development.
The analysis of the findings indicates that considering the limitations of the land and the problems of providing the costs of urban services as well as the lack of social cohesion of the neighborhoods, it can be boldly said that the best option for the future development of Baft infill development city or in other words the internal development strategy and in this regard, the realization of the infill development strategy definitely requires different and similar solutions and strategies in different contexts of the city, some of which are mentioned below:
Preventing scattered development of the city due to natural obstacles such as gardens in the southern part of Qazvin city and man-made obstacles such as the highway in the north of the city. In this case, infill development can be considered with an efficient, intelligent and expert planning to overcome the indiscriminate expansion of scattered development, and by identifying the capacities in the city, they plan their use and reorganization.
The construction of a green belt around the existing service area of the city, especially that currently the gardens in the south of the city act as a green belt, but tampering with them is also a big issue for the municipality, as well as around the communication roads. In the north of the city and in the east towards the discontinuous urban structures such as Alborz, Sharifiya, Alvand, Shahr Mohammadiyeh.
Considering the fragmentation of the urban fabric, considering the neighborhood scale and approach along with proper planning and decision-making in order to develop the city in the form of sustainable development in order to eliminate the scattered phenomenon of urban sprawl.
Providing the necessary facilities and equipment to the owners of agricultural, horticultural and arable lands around the city in order to preserve and maintain the use of land and to exercise supervision and control in order to prevent any change of use and to intensify the area of the city, especially in the southern part, and also to provide these facilities to the context dilapidated buildings in a serious way for the reconstruction and redevelopment of brown tissues in the form of urban sprawl policies.
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