ارائه الگوریتمی بر پایه روش گرت و شبیه سازی مونت کارلو جهت مدیریت و کنترل پروژه های تحقیق و توسعه (مطالعه موردی: هواپیما مدل)
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Amir Afsar
1
(Industrial engineering. BASU University of Hamedan. Iran)
Seyed Jalal Ziaei
2
(Industrial engineering. Sharif University og technology. Iran)
تاریخ دریافت : 1400/08/10
تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/02/11
تاریخ انتشار : 1401/03/05
کلید واژه:
روش گرت,
شبیه سازی مونت کارلو,
هواپیما مدل,
پروژه های تحقیق و توسعه,
مدیریت و کنترل پروژه,
چکیده مقاله :
با توجه به اهمیت روزافزون مباحث مدیریت و کنترل پروژه و منافعی که در انتخاب روش صحیح مدیریت مطابق با نوع خاص پروژه‌ها وجود دارد، هدف تحقیق حاضر ارائه روشی مناسب جهت برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت پروژه‌های تحقیق و توسعه می‌باشد. وجود عدم قطعیت و مبانی احتمالی چه در حوزه زمان‌های احتمالی و چه در مباحث مربوط به وجود شاخه‌ها و فعالیت‌های احتمالی، به جذابیت مسائل حوزه مدیریت و کنترل پروژه می‌افزاید. قطعی نبودن فعالیت‌ها و زمان لازم برای تکمیل هر یک از فعالیت‌های پروژه، مدیر پروژه را ملزم به استفادی از تکنیک‌هایی متناسب با ماهیت خاص پروژه مورد بررسی خود می‌کند. در این مقاله با تشریح پروژه احتمالی ساخت هواپیما مدل با توجه به فضای احتمالی موجود، یک الگوریتم مناسب بر پایه روش گرت و شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو به گونه‌ای ارائه میگردد که در نتیجه آن مدیر پروژه بتواند از خروجی حاصل از الگوریتم، به بررسی مولفه‌های اساسی و برآورد متغیرهای تصادفی نظیر زمان مورد انتظار تکمیل پروژه و هزینه متوسط تکمیل فعالیت‌های پروژه بپردازد و نتایج دل‌خواه خود را جهت مدیریت و کنترل هر چه بهتر پروژه استخراج سازد. جهت ارائه مطلوب و درک بهتر الگوریتم پیشنهادی، نتایج حاصل از بکارگیری الگوریتم جهت برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت پروژه ساخت هواپیما مدل، بررسی و تشریح خواهد شد و در نتیجه، زمان و هزینه مورد انتظار انجام پروژه در بازه اطمینان 95 درصد استخراج میگردد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Given the growing importance of project management and control issues and the benefits of choosing the right management method according to the specific type of project, The purpose of this study is to provide an appropriate method for planning and managing research and development projects. Uncertainty of activities and time required to complete each project activity, requires the project manager to use techniques appropriate to the specific nature of the project under review. In this paper, by describing the probabilistic project of constructing a model airplane according to the probabilistic conditions, a suitable algorithm based on Gert method and Monte Carlo simulation is presented in such a way that as a result the project manager can analyze the basic components from the output of the algorithm and estimate random variables such as the expected time of project completion and the average cost of completing project activities and extract the desired results to better manage and control the project. In order to provide a better understanding of the proposed algorithm, the results of using the algorithm to plan and manage the model aircraft construction project will be reviewed and explained and As a result, the expected time and cost of the project is extracted within a 95% confidence interval.
منابع و مأخذ:
Aliaei, Ehsan., Aghabeigi, Pooya., and Jani, Amir. (2021). Predicting the cost of completing railway construction projects using the intelligent fuzzy-neural inference model. 7th International Conference on Recent Advances in Railway Engineering. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/1235920. (In Persian).
Chen-Tung, C., and Sue-Fen, H. (2007). Applying fuzzy method for measuring criticality in project network. Information Sciences, 177: 2448-2458.
Doroudian, M. (1995). Perth planning practices in industrial research projects. M. Sc. Thesis. Faculty of industrial engineering. Tehran, Iran University of Science and Technology. (In Persian).
Farzi Poursaen, Reza. (1999). Management and Control of Research and Development Projects Using a Possible GERT Approach, The Second Conference of Industries and Mines Research and Development Centers, Tehran, Association of Research and Development Centers of Industries and Mines. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/21680. (In Persian).
Freund, John. (2013). Mathematical statistics and its applications. Translated by Mohammad Qasem Vahidi Asl and Ali Amidi. University Publishing Center.
Gauri, S., and Ajay, K. S. (2002). A process control plan with two-phase inspection. Economic Quality Control, 17(1): 63-73.
Gavareshki, M. H. K. (2004). New fuzzy GERT method for research projects scheduling. Transactions, 2: 820 - 824.
Haji Karimi, Arash., Khani Jazani, Jamal., and Hoshyar, Amir. (2015). Master Thesis Development of a model for reducing production costs by the fuzzy Gert method (Shahid Rajaei Power Plant). Qazvin, Raja university. (In Persian)
Hsiau, H., and Lin, C. (2009). A fuzzy PERT approach to evaluate plant construction project scheduling risk under uncertain resources capacity. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 2 (1): 31-47.
Joseph, L. S. (1978). Assessing system availability using the graphical evaluation and review technique simulation approach. Ph. D thesis. Department of management, Nebraska.
Kazemi, Abolfazl., and Fakhouri, Pasha. (2013). Presenting a fuzzy control system to estimate the project completion time in Gert networks. International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Production Management. 23 (2): 251-263.
Lachmayer, R., Afsari, M., and Bastian, S. (2012). Fuzzy GERT method for scheduling research project. 9th International Industrial Engineering Conference, Iran. Retrieved from https://www.sid.ir/FileServer/JF/5002513960108.pdf. (In Persian).
Mahlouji, H. (2008). Discrete-event simulation systems. Fourth Edition, published by the Institute of Sharif University, Tehran. 710p. (In Persian).
Manjezi, Nasim., Zaki Dizaji, Hassan., Sheikh Davoodi, Mohammad Javad., Marzban, Afshin., and Shamili, Mahmoud. (2017). Application of fuzzy Gert method in scheduling Neyshekar production operations. Agricultural Engineering, 40 (1), 125-139. (In Persian).
Manjezi, Nasim., and Zaki Dizaji, Hassan. (2016). A fuzzy approach to optimize the time of overhaul of Derogar Neyshekar using the Gert grid method. Iranian Biosystem Engineering. 36 (3), 98-112. (In Persian).
Manju, A., and Pooja, M. (2007). Reliability analysis of consecutive-k, r-out-of-rr. DFM system using GERT. International Journal of Operations Research, 4(2): 110-117.
Mortazavi, Seyedeh Safoura., Samooi, Parvaneh., Mortazavi, Seyedeh Zohreh., and Moniri, Alireza. (2019). Planning the activities of nurses in the intensive care unit of Farshchian Cardiovascular Subspecialty Educational-Therapeutic Center with the help of an innovative algorithm based on the Gert method. Hospital Magazine. 18 (3): 19-32. (In Persian).
Rezaei, amirAli. (2021). Intelligent optimization of drilling project by fuzzy logic method. Fifth International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Productivity and Quality. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/1271305. (In Persian).
Sabzehparvar, Majid. (2011). Project management and control in a step-by-step manner. Tehran, Terme Publishing.
Sadri, M., and Sakaki, S. H. (2005). Effective networking techniques in the management of exploration projects. Proceedings of the conference of Mining Engineering Iran. Retrieved from https://www.sid.ir/fa/seminar/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=1399. (In Persian).
Saei, Mahdieh. (2019). Analysis of obstacles and problems of greenhouse production in the south of Kerman province. Journal of Vegetable Science. 3 (1): 67-81. (In Persian).
Shomeili, M. (2012). Evaluation of agricultural wastes produced during operation of sugarcane production. CD Proceedings of the 7th conference of Iranian sugar cane technologists. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/167158. (In Persian).
Talesh Hosseini, Sajjad., Moradzadeh, Ali., and Asghari, Omid. (2019). Application of GERT planning network in the management structure of geostatistical simulation projects - Case study of copper ore - North Dali porphyry gold. Mining Engineering Quarterly. 14 (42): 32-46. (In Persian).
Wang, C., Yang, G., Hung, K., Chang, K., and Chu, P. (2011). Evaluating the manufacturing capability of a lithographic area by using a novel vague GERT. Expert Systems with Applications, 38 (1): 923-932.
Zaki Dizaji, Hassan., and Manjezi, Nasim. (2018). Provide a network model for time management of overhaul of Derogar Neyshekar. Agricultural Machinery Quarterly. 8 (2): 403-412. (In Persian).
_||_
Aliaei, Ehsan., Aghabeigi, Pooya., and Jani, Amir. (2021). Predicting the cost of completing railway construction projects using the intelligent fuzzy-neural inference model. 7th International Conference on Recent Advances in Railway Engineering. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/1235920. (In Persian).
Chen-Tung, C., and Sue-Fen, H. (2007). Applying fuzzy method for measuring criticality in project network. Information Sciences, 177: 2448-2458.
Doroudian, M. (1995). Perth planning practices in industrial research projects. M. Sc. Thesis. Faculty of industrial engineering. Tehran, Iran University of Science and Technology. (In Persian).
Farzi Poursaen, Reza. (1999). Management and Control of Research and Development Projects Using a Possible GERT Approach, The Second Conference of Industries and Mines Research and Development Centers, Tehran, Association of Research and Development Centers of Industries and Mines. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/21680. (In Persian).
Freund, John. (2013). Mathematical statistics and its applications. Translated by Mohammad Qasem Vahidi Asl and Ali Amidi. University Publishing Center.
Gauri, S., and Ajay, K. S. (2002). A process control plan with two-phase inspection. Economic Quality Control, 17(1): 63-73.
Gavareshki, M. H. K. (2004). New fuzzy GERT method for research projects scheduling. Transactions, 2: 820 - 824.
Haji Karimi, Arash., Khani Jazani, Jamal., and Hoshyar, Amir. (2015). Master Thesis Development of a model for reducing production costs by the fuzzy Gert method (Shahid Rajaei Power Plant). Qazvin, Raja university. (In Persian)
Hsiau, H., and Lin, C. (2009). A fuzzy PERT approach to evaluate plant construction project scheduling risk under uncertain resources capacity. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 2 (1): 31-47.
Joseph, L. S. (1978). Assessing system availability using the graphical evaluation and review technique simulation approach. Ph. D thesis. Department of management, Nebraska.
Kazemi, Abolfazl., and Fakhouri, Pasha. (2013). Presenting a fuzzy control system to estimate the project completion time in Gert networks. International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Production Management. 23 (2): 251-263.
Lachmayer, R., Afsari, M., and Bastian, S. (2012). Fuzzy GERT method for scheduling research project. 9th International Industrial Engineering Conference, Iran. Retrieved from https://www.sid.ir/FileServer/JF/5002513960108.pdf. (In Persian).
Mahlouji, H. (2008). Discrete-event simulation systems. Fourth Edition, published by the Institute of Sharif University, Tehran. 710p. (In Persian).
Manjezi, Nasim., Zaki Dizaji, Hassan., Sheikh Davoodi, Mohammad Javad., Marzban, Afshin., and Shamili, Mahmoud. (2017). Application of fuzzy Gert method in scheduling Neyshekar production operations. Agricultural Engineering, 40 (1), 125-139. (In Persian).
Manjezi, Nasim., and Zaki Dizaji, Hassan. (2016). A fuzzy approach to optimize the time of overhaul of Derogar Neyshekar using the Gert grid method. Iranian Biosystem Engineering. 36 (3), 98-112. (In Persian).
Manju, A., and Pooja, M. (2007). Reliability analysis of consecutive-k, r-out-of-rr. DFM system using GERT. International Journal of Operations Research, 4(2): 110-117.
Mortazavi, Seyedeh Safoura., Samooi, Parvaneh., Mortazavi, Seyedeh Zohreh., and Moniri, Alireza. (2019). Planning the activities of nurses in the intensive care unit of Farshchian Cardiovascular Subspecialty Educational-Therapeutic Center with the help of an innovative algorithm based on the Gert method. Hospital Magazine. 18 (3): 19-32. (In Persian).
Rezaei, amirAli. (2021). Intelligent optimization of drilling project by fuzzy logic method. Fifth International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Productivity and Quality. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/1271305. (In Persian).
Sabzehparvar, Majid. (2011). Project management and control in a step-by-step manner. Tehran, Terme Publishing.
Sadri, M., and Sakaki, S. H. (2005). Effective networking techniques in the management of exploration projects. Proceedings of the conference of Mining Engineering Iran. Retrieved from https://www.sid.ir/fa/seminar/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=1399. (In Persian).
Saei, Mahdieh. (2019). Analysis of obstacles and problems of greenhouse production in the south of Kerman province. Journal of Vegetable Science. 3 (1): 67-81. (In Persian).
Shomeili, M. (2012). Evaluation of agricultural wastes produced during operation of sugarcane production. CD Proceedings of the 7th conference of Iranian sugar cane technologists. Retrieved from https://civilica.com/doc/167158. (In Persian).
Talesh Hosseini, Sajjad., Moradzadeh, Ali., and Asghari, Omid. (2019). Application of GERT planning network in the management structure of geostatistical simulation projects - Case study of copper ore - North Dali porphyry gold. Mining Engineering Quarterly. 14 (42): 32-46. (In Persian).
Wang, C., Yang, G., Hung, K., Chang, K., and Chu, P. (2011). Evaluating the manufacturing capability of a lithographic area by using a novel vague GERT. Expert Systems with Applications, 38 (1): 923-932.
Zaki Dizaji, Hassan., and Manjezi, Nasim. (2018). Provide a network model for time management of overhaul of Derogar Neyshekar. Agricultural Machinery Quarterly. 8 (2): 403-412. (In Persian).
