طراحی مدل توسعه اشتغال استان یزد با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتی
Hamed Fallah Tafti
1
(Assistant Professor, Yazd Jahad Daneshgahi Higher Education Institute, Yazd, Iran)
Syed Ali Naghavi
2
(M.A Student in Industrial Engineering, Yazd Jahad Daneshgahi Higher Education Institute, Yazd, Iran)
Mir-Mohammad Asaadi Firuzabadi
3
(Assistant Professor, Yazd Jahad Daneshgahi Higher Education Institute, Yazd, Iran)
کلید واژه: simulation, System Dynamics, شبیه سازی, Public sector, Population, جمعیت, Private Sector, پویایی سیستم, توسعه اشتغال, اقتصاد بخش خصوصی, اقتصاد بخش دولتی, employment development,
چکیده مقاله :
بررسی تحولات بازار نیروی کار در سطح استانهای کشور نشان می دهد که استان یزد یکی از استانهایی است که دارای بیشترین افزایش نرخ بیکاری در سالهای اخیر بوده است. به طوری که نرخ بیکاری این استان از 5.2% در سال 1375 به 9.4% در سال 1389 افزایش یافته است. در همین راستا در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده است تا با طراحی مدل توسعه اشتغال استان یزد عوامل عمده موثر بر توسعه اشتغال شناسایی شده و با لحاظ نمودن ارتباطات متقابل آنها، وضعیت آینده اشتغال استان با توجه به شرایط مختلف جمعیت شناختی و محیطی پیش بینی گردد. اجرای مدل فوق بر مبنای اصول سیستم‌های پویا موجب ارائه سناریوهای متعددی در توسعه اشتغال می‌گردد که می‌تواند تصمیم گیرندگان کلان را در اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب یاری دهد. مدل مذکور بر اساس روش‌های پویایی شناسی سیستم‌ها طراحی شده است. به این منظور از نرم افزار VensimPLE اقدام به شبیه سازی توسعه اشتغال استان یزد با در نظر گرفتن اقتصاد بخش دولتی و خصوصی شده است. بازه زمانی 30 ساله از 1385 الی 1415 برای اجرا و سنجش روایی مدل مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. در پایان پس از تشریح وضعیت متصور برای آینده اشتغال استان با ارائه نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل، پیشنهادهایی برای اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب در بهره گیری از فرصت‌های پیش رو افزایش توان مدیریت در مواجه با تهدید های آتی ارائه شده است.
The inquiry about labor market evaluation in provinces of the country shows that Yazd is one of the provinces that have been faced with the more increasing unemployment rate in the recent years; as the unemployment rate in this province has increased from 5.2% in 1375 to 9.4% in 1389. In this research, we intend to identify the major effective factors on employment development by designing the Yazd province employment model. We also intend to anticipate the future of the province employment with regard to the reciprocal relations of the factors and with attention to various environmental and demographic circumstances. The implementation of this model offers several scenarios in employment development on the basis of system dynamics principles; that can help the major decision makers choose the appropriate policies. The mentioned model is designed on the basis of system dynamics methods. For this reason, the Yazd province employment development was simulated by “Vensim PLE” software concerning the public and private sectors. A period of 30 years from 1385 to 1415 was selected for implementation and test validity of the model. In the end, after explaining the conceived situation for the future of the province employment, with presenting results of the model, a number of suggestions will be given to help choose the appropriate policies in taking future opportunities and increasing the management power against future threats.
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7- Forrester, J.W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics: A major breakthrough for decision makers, Harvard Business Review, 36(4), 37-66.
8- Haji Hosseini, M. & Sohrabynzhad, MR. (2009). Migration, Tehran: Plan ahead.
9- Hosseini Pour, S.M. (2004). Review and analysis of trends and unemployment rates in Yazd between 1997-2003, Department of Economic Planning Management Planning, Yazd, 5, 103-126.
10- Kalantari, A. (2007). Economic Survey subsidy, Tehran: Institute for Trade Studies and Research, the new economy.
11- Kirkwood, R (1998). System dynamics method: a quick introduction.
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13- Morecroft, J.D.W. (1998). System dynamics and microworlds for policymakers. European Journal of Operational Research, 35 (3), 301-320.
14- Mottaghi, L. (1999). Demand Analysis and Estimation of Employment, 1972-2007, Journal of Planning and Budget, 27(3), pp. 39-63.
15- Pugh, R. (1988). The executive training system. Mass, Cambridge University Press.
16- Razavi, M., & Musharraf , R. (2004). Dynamic Analysis of employment in the economy (a case study of the Akan), Journal of Economic Studies, 18, 1-47.
17- Rhoten, D., Calhoun, C., & Calhoun, C. J. (2011). Knowledge Matters: The Public Mission of the Research University: Columbia University Press.
18- Salimi Far, M. (2004). Economic Development, Tehran: movahed.
19- Shi, T., & Gill,R. (2005). Developing effective policies for the sustainable development of ecological agriculture in China: the case study of Jinshan County with a systems dynamics model,Ecological Economics, 53, 223-246.
20- Spector, J.M., Christensen, D.L., Sioutine, A.V., & McCormack, D. (2001). Models and simulations for learning in complex domains: using causal loop diagrams for assessment and evaluation,Computers in Human Behavior, 17, 517-545.
21- Statistical Center of Iran. (2011). Statistical Yearbook of Yazd, Yazd: Province Yazd.
22- Sterman, JD. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill, New York.
23- Sushil, S. (1993). System dynamics: practical approach to issues management, translation, E. T., A. Nur Ali and Nariman Valizadeh, Tehran: Iran University of Science and Technology.
24- Valizadeh, R., & Khalili, M. (2005). Analysis of the structure of employment and unemployment in Yazd province during 2003 and 2004, Department of Economic Planning Management Planning, Yazd, 5, 67-98.
25- Ziary, K.A. (2011). Evaluation of safety and security in the neighborhoods of the city of Yazd, Human Geography Research, 76, 1.
_||_1- Amini, A.R. (2003). Estimating the economic model of labor demand and forecast years 1998-2000, Journal of Planning and Budget, 74, 53-86.
2- Barlas, Y., & Yasarcan, H. (2006). Goal Setting, Evaluation, Learning and Revision: A Dynamic Modeling Approach, Evaluation and Program Planning, 29, 79-87.
3- Department of Cooperatives, Labour and Social Welfare. (2012). Employment document Yazd, Yazd Province.
4- Evans, T.P., Manire, A., Castro, F., Brondizio, E., & McCrachen, S. (2001). A dynamic model of household decision-making and parcel level landcover change in the eastern Amazon, Ecol. Model, 143, 95–113.
5- Faiz pur, M. A., & Makyan, S.N. (2009). Anatomy of unemployment in the province of Yazd: too far away and hope, Journal of Economic Issues and Policies, 78, 65-84.
6- Fazeli, H. (2007). The labor market status of Yazd province and identify the causes of unemployment, Deputy Economic Planning Management Planning, Yazd, 8, 121-158.
7- Forrester, J.W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics: A major breakthrough for decision makers, Harvard Business Review, 36(4), 37-66.
8- Haji Hosseini, M. & Sohrabynzhad, MR. (2009). Migration, Tehran: Plan ahead.
9- Hosseini Pour, S.M. (2004). Review and analysis of trends and unemployment rates in Yazd between 1997-2003, Department of Economic Planning Management Planning, Yazd, 5, 103-126.
10- Kalantari, A. (2007). Economic Survey subsidy, Tehran: Institute for Trade Studies and Research, the new economy.
11- Kirkwood, R (1998). System dynamics method: a quick introduction.
12- Lane, D.C., & Oliva, R. (1998). The greater whole: Towards a synthesis of system dynamics and soft systems methodology, European Journal of Operational Research, 107, 214-235.
13- Morecroft, J.D.W. (1998). System dynamics and microworlds for policymakers. European Journal of Operational Research, 35 (3), 301-320.
14- Mottaghi, L. (1999). Demand Analysis and Estimation of Employment, 1972-2007, Journal of Planning and Budget, 27(3), pp. 39-63.
15- Pugh, R. (1988). The executive training system. Mass, Cambridge University Press.
16- Razavi, M., & Musharraf , R. (2004). Dynamic Analysis of employment in the economy (a case study of the Akan), Journal of Economic Studies, 18, 1-47.
17- Rhoten, D., Calhoun, C., & Calhoun, C. J. (2011). Knowledge Matters: The Public Mission of the Research University: Columbia University Press.
18- Salimi Far, M. (2004). Economic Development, Tehran: movahed.
19- Shi, T., & Gill,R. (2005). Developing effective policies for the sustainable development of ecological agriculture in China: the case study of Jinshan County with a systems dynamics model,Ecological Economics, 53, 223-246.
20- Spector, J.M., Christensen, D.L., Sioutine, A.V., & McCormack, D. (2001). Models and simulations for learning in complex domains: using causal loop diagrams for assessment and evaluation,Computers in Human Behavior, 17, 517-545.
21- Statistical Center of Iran. (2011). Statistical Yearbook of Yazd, Yazd: Province Yazd.
22- Sterman, JD. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill, New York.
23- Sushil, S. (1993). System dynamics: practical approach to issues management, translation, E. T., A. Nur Ali and Nariman Valizadeh, Tehran: Iran University of Science and Technology.
24- Valizadeh, R., & Khalili, M. (2005). Analysis of the structure of employment and unemployment in Yazd province during 2003 and 2004, Department of Economic Planning Management Planning, Yazd, 5, 67-98.
25- Ziary, K.A. (2011). Evaluation of safety and security in the neighborhoods of the city of Yazd, Human Geography Research, 76, 1.
