آینده نگاری دانشگاه کارآفرین با استفاده از روش تلفیقی سناریو پردازی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع در افق 1404 هجری شمسی
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانینور محمد یعقوبی 1 , مسعود دهقانی 2 , ملیحه امیدوار 3
1 - استاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و
2 - مدیریت دولتی- دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصادد-دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
3 - کارشناس ارشد کارآفرینی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
کلید واژه: دانشگاه کارآفرین, آینده نگاری, سناریو نویسی, تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه با توجه به تغییرات سریع محیط ی و عدم اطمینان حاصل از آن، ضرورت برنامه ریزی استراتژیک و آینده پژوهی برای مقابله با تغییرات احتمالی آتی، بیش از پیش آشکار می گردد. در این راستا پژوهش حاضر می کوشد با استفاده از دو روش آینده نگاری یعنی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو پردازی ابتدا به شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل پیشران کلیدی پردازد، سپس سناریوهای عمده پیش روی دانشگاه کارآفرین را تدوین کند. چارچوب نظری این تحقیق، پارادایم هنجاری و برنامه ریزی با رویکرد وفادارانه به اسناد بالادستی است. افق زمانی تحقیق حاضر سال1404 هجری شمسی است. داده های اولیه تحقیق با استفاده از مصاحبه های نیمه باز و دلفی از خبرگان دانشگاهی حوزه کارآفرینی جمع آوری و با استفاده از نرم افزار MicMac تجزیه و تحلیل شده اند. در نهایت نتایج حاصل از به کارگیری روش تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع حاکی از آن بود که 14 عامل کلیدی از میان عوامل 25 گانه شناسایی شده در مرحله مصاحبه، بیشترین تأثیر را بر آینده دانشگاه کارآفرین دارد. این عوامل به عنوان عوامل پایه در سناریو نویسی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. بر اساس ایده سناریو نویسی،59 وضعیت ممکن و محتمل در آینده دانشگاه کارآفرین تعریف گردید و با تشکیل ماتریس59×59 با استفاده از قابلیت های نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد، 5 سناریو با احتمال وقوع بسیار بالا، 19 سناریو با احتمال وقوع متوسط به بالا و 291 سناریو با احتمال وقوع پایین و ضعیف، استخراج شد که در این مقاله 5 سناریوی بسیار قوی و 19 سناریو با احتمال وقوع متوسط به بالا مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته است.
Due to the rapid changes and uncertainty resulting from the necessity of strategic planning and future studies to deal with possible changes in the future will be more and more evident. The theoretical framework of this research, normative paradigm and planning approach is faithful to the upstream documents. The present study is the time horizon of the year 1404. Preliminary data research using semi-open interviews and academic experts in the field of entrepreneurship Delphi collection and analysis have been using the software MicMac. More used. The ideal scenario, 59 possible and probable future entrepreneurial university was defined by a matrix of 59 × 59 using the software scenario wizard, 5 scenarios the probability is very high, 19 scenario with the likelihood of average to high 291 scenarios with low probability and weak, were very strong in the article 5 scenarios and 19 moderate to high probability scenario is analyzed.
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Alizade, A. (2009), Scenario-Based or Scenario-Based Planning. Tehran: Institute for International Studies on Energy, (In Persian).
Aslanian, M.(2017),Futuristic Approach to Strategic Planning of Human Resources Using Methodology Mete-Synethesis. Journal of Urban Management, 15(45), 389-416, (In Persian).
Balali, M.(2013),Identifying the Key Factors Affecting the Future of Voice and Radio Broadcasting Organization by Analyzing the Interaction Effects of Trends. Journal of Communication Research,13(3),9-37, (In Persian).
Bell, W. (2008),Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes and Knowledge New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, (In Persian).
Chrisman, A. (2015), Creating Entrepreneurial Universities in the UK: Applying Entrepreneurship Theory to Practice. Journal of Technology Transfer, 52(5),559-603.
Cornish,E.(2007),The Study of the Future: An Introduction to the Art and Science of Understanding and Shaping Tomorrows World USA: World Future Society.
Etzkowitz, H. (2003), New Managerialism, Academic Capitalism and Entrepreneurialism in universities: Is the local Dimension still Important? Comparative education.3 (1),12-17.
Etzkowitz, H. (2009), The Evolution of the Entrepreneurial University.International Journal of Technology and Globalization, 1(1),46-77.
Fahey, L.,& Robert, M. R. (1998),Learning from the Future, Competitive Foresight Scenarios.Canada: John wiley & sons Inc.
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Ghasemi, V.(2013), A Study of the Status of Knowledge Management Components in the Police of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Journal of Organizational development of the police,40, 71-89, (In Persian).
Gibb, A.(2005),Towards the Entrepreneurial University, Entrepreneurship as a Lever of Change, Policy Paper, National Council for Graduate Entrepreneurship, 1-14.
Glenn., J.,& Gordon. T. (2003),A Tool-Box for Scenario Planning, CD ROM, the Millennium, Project. American Council for the United Nations University.
Godet, M. (2008), Strategic Foresight.Lipsor Working Paper.
Hejazi, A. (2011), Developing Frameworks for New Theories in Futures Studies. WFS' annual conference proceeding: World Future Volume" through pages 81 to 99.
Hoover,W.(2009), The Future of Human Resources: Technology Assists In streamling your HR Department,Colorado Biz.
Jakob, V. (2016),Scientists, Transition to Academic Entrepreneurship Economic and Psychological Determinants. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33,628-641.
Keshavarzi, A. H. (2018), The Pattern of Utilization of Factors and Prevents in the Entrepreneurial University in Iran. Journal of Strategic Management Studies,8(29), 163-187, (In Persian).
Lu, L., &Etzkowitz, H. (2008),Strategic Challenges for Creating Knowledge-Based Innovation in China: Trans Forming Triple Helix University-Government-Industry Relations.Technol Manage, 5-11.
Mets, H., Tartari, V., Perkman, &M. andsalter, A. (2014), In Good Company: The Influence of Peers on Industry Engagement by Academic Scientists Research Policy.32 (2),22-37.
Mians, S. (2006), Can Entrepreneurial University Model “Help Pakistan Leap Forg into the Knowledge Economy? Som Reflections, Strategic Management and Entrepreneurship. USA:State University of New York.
Moradi, H.(2017), The Role of Science and Technology Parks in the Economic and Industrial Development of Countries(ESCUP),52, (In Persian).
Mozafari, A.(2010), Future Studies, a Platform for Crossing the Boundaries of knowledge. Journal of Order and Security. 2(4), 25-47, (In Persian).
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Nazemi, A.(2008), Regional Fantasy as a Land Plot.
Pour Ezaat, A. A.(2010),Identifying and Prioritizing Effective Factors on Knowledge Commercialization in Universities(Based on the Comparison of Five World-Class Universities). Journal of Entrepreneurship Development. 2(3),35-66, (In Persian).
Rabbani, T.(2013),Structural Analysis Method, A Tool for Understanding and Analyzing Variables Affecting the Future of Urban Issues. The first National Conference on Future Studiesm, (In Persian).
Roney., C. W. (2010), Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities. Journal of Futures Studies, 15 (2), 71-100.
Samadi Mirkalaee,H. (2006),Evaluation of Entrepreneurial University Indices in Mazandaran University Based on Fuzzy Method. Journal of Entrepreneurship Development. 7(2), 369-388, (In Persian).
Sarmast, B., & Zali, N.(1389), Urban Spatial Planning and Population Planning on the Horizon of 1400. Journal of Strategic Management Studies,13(2), 59-87, (In Persian).
Schwartz, P. (1996),The Art of the Long view.New York: Doubleday.
Shafee Abadi, A.(2015),Entrepreneur University and Industrial Development.Journal of Culture, Counseling and Psychotherapy. 4(13), (In Persian).
Shahrjerdi, M.(2013),Futurist Studies Jihad University. Master's Thesis. University of Knowledge and Culture.
Taghipour, Z., &Hasanmoradi, N.(1385), The Proper Pattern of Creating an Entrepreneurial University. Journal of Economics and Management. 69, 31-40.
UNESCO. (2004),Higher Education in Europe. 9(2).
Voros, J, (2003), A Genreic Foresight Process Framwork.Foresight, 5(3),10-21.
Yaghubi, N. M.(2015),Investigating the Relationship between the Strategic Approach of HRM and Organizational Commitment of Employees.Journal of Management of government agencies. 2(7), 46-59, (In Persian).
Zali, N.(2012), Strategic Forecasting and Regional Policy with Scenario Approach. Journal of Strategic Management Studies. 14(4), 34-53, (In Persian).
Zali, N.(2011),Prospects for Regional Development with a Baseline Scenario Planning Approach. P.h.D. Thesis. Tabriz: Tabriz University, (In Persian)
Zuccala, M. (2015),The Nature of Academic Entrepreneurship in the UK: Widening the Focus on Entrepreneurial Activities. Research Policy, 42, 405-
_||_Aliahmadi, A. R., &Ghazi Noori, S. S.(2015),Forecasting Technology and its Application in Policy and Technology Management. Journal of Management. 2, 5-12, (In Persian).
Alizade, A. (2009), Scenario-Based or Scenario-Based Planning. Tehran: Institute for International Studies on Energy, (In Persian).
Aslanian, M.(2017),Futuristic Approach to Strategic Planning of Human Resources Using Methodology Mete-Synethesis. Journal of Urban Management, 15(45), 389-416, (In Persian).
Balali, M.(2013),Identifying the Key Factors Affecting the Future of Voice and Radio Broadcasting Organization by Analyzing the Interaction Effects of Trends. Journal of Communication Research,13(3),9-37, (In Persian).
Bell, W. (2008),Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes and Knowledge New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, (In Persian).
Chrisman, A. (2015), Creating Entrepreneurial Universities in the UK: Applying Entrepreneurship Theory to Practice. Journal of Technology Transfer, 52(5),559-603.
Cornish,E.(2007),The Study of the Future: An Introduction to the Art and Science of Understanding and Shaping Tomorrows World USA: World Future Society.
Etzkowitz, H. (2003), New Managerialism, Academic Capitalism and Entrepreneurialism in universities: Is the local Dimension still Important? Comparative education.3 (1),12-17.
Etzkowitz, H. (2009), The Evolution of the Entrepreneurial University.International Journal of Technology and Globalization, 1(1),46-77.
Fahey, L.,& Robert, M. R. (1998),Learning from the Future, Competitive Foresight Scenarios.Canada: John wiley & sons Inc.
Foundation for the Development of Tomorrow.(1384). Technological techniques of introspection.
Ghadiri, R. A.(1384),Review of Several National Experiences in Foresight. Tehran: Publishing Hagh, (In Persian).
Ghasemi, V.(2013), A Study of the Status of Knowledge Management Components in the Police of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Journal of Organizational development of the police,40, 71-89, (In Persian).
Gibb, A.(2005),Towards the Entrepreneurial University, Entrepreneurship as a Lever of Change, Policy Paper, National Council for Graduate Entrepreneurship, 1-14.
Glenn., J.,& Gordon. T. (2003),A Tool-Box for Scenario Planning, CD ROM, the Millennium, Project. American Council for the United Nations University.
Godet, M. (2008), Strategic Foresight.Lipsor Working Paper.
Hejazi, A. (2011), Developing Frameworks for New Theories in Futures Studies. WFS' annual conference proceeding: World Future Volume" through pages 81 to 99.
Hoover,W.(2009), The Future of Human Resources: Technology Assists In streamling your HR Department,Colorado Biz.
Jakob, V. (2016),Scientists, Transition to Academic Entrepreneurship Economic and Psychological Determinants. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33,628-641.
Keshavarzi, A. H. (2018), The Pattern of Utilization of Factors and Prevents in the Entrepreneurial University in Iran. Journal of Strategic Management Studies,8(29), 163-187, (In Persian).
Lu, L., &Etzkowitz, H. (2008),Strategic Challenges for Creating Knowledge-Based Innovation in China: Trans Forming Triple Helix University-Government-Industry Relations.Technol Manage, 5-11.
Mets, H., Tartari, V., Perkman, &M. andsalter, A. (2014), In Good Company: The Influence of Peers on Industry Engagement by Academic Scientists Research Policy.32 (2),22-37.
Mians, S. (2006), Can Entrepreneurial University Model “Help Pakistan Leap Forg into the Knowledge Economy? Som Reflections, Strategic Management and Entrepreneurship. USA:State University of New York.
Moradi, H.(2017), The Role of Science and Technology Parks in the Economic and Industrial Development of Countries(ESCUP),52, (In Persian).
Mozafari, A.(2010), Future Studies, a Platform for Crossing the Boundaries of knowledge. Journal of Order and Security. 2(4), 25-47, (In Persian).
Nazemi, A. (2007),Formatting from Concept to Run. Tehran:New Industries Center, Ministry of Industry and Mines, (In Persian).
Nazemi, A.(2008), Regional Fantasy as a Land Plot.
Pour Ezaat, A. A.(2010),Identifying and Prioritizing Effective Factors on Knowledge Commercialization in Universities(Based on the Comparison of Five World-Class Universities). Journal of Entrepreneurship Development. 2(3),35-66, (In Persian).
Rabbani, T.(2013),Structural Analysis Method, A Tool for Understanding and Analyzing Variables Affecting the Future of Urban Issues. The first National Conference on Future Studiesm, (In Persian).
Roney., C. W. (2010), Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities. Journal of Futures Studies, 15 (2), 71-100.
Samadi Mirkalaee,H. (2006),Evaluation of Entrepreneurial University Indices in Mazandaran University Based on Fuzzy Method. Journal of Entrepreneurship Development. 7(2), 369-388, (In Persian).
Sarmast, B., & Zali, N.(1389), Urban Spatial Planning and Population Planning on the Horizon of 1400. Journal of Strategic Management Studies,13(2), 59-87, (In Persian).
Schwartz, P. (1996),The Art of the Long view.New York: Doubleday.
Shafee Abadi, A.(2015),Entrepreneur University and Industrial Development.Journal of Culture, Counseling and Psychotherapy. 4(13), (In Persian).
Shahrjerdi, M.(2013),Futurist Studies Jihad University. Master's Thesis. University of Knowledge and Culture.
Taghipour, Z., &Hasanmoradi, N.(1385), The Proper Pattern of Creating an Entrepreneurial University. Journal of Economics and Management. 69, 31-40.
UNESCO. (2004),Higher Education in Europe. 9(2).
Voros, J, (2003), A Genreic Foresight Process Framwork.Foresight, 5(3),10-21.
Yaghubi, N. M.(2015),Investigating the Relationship between the Strategic Approach of HRM and Organizational Commitment of Employees.Journal of Management of government agencies. 2(7), 46-59, (In Persian).
Zali, N.(2012), Strategic Forecasting and Regional Policy with Scenario Approach. Journal of Strategic Management Studies. 14(4), 34-53, (In Persian).
Zali, N.(2011),Prospects for Regional Development with a Baseline Scenario Planning Approach. P.h.D. Thesis. Tabriz: Tabriz University, (In Persian)
Zuccala, M. (2015),The Nature of Academic Entrepreneurship in the UK: Widening the Focus on Entrepreneurial Activities. Research Policy, 42, 405-
