بررسی رابطه علّی بین کارآفرینی و بیکاری در بخش صنعت ایران (1385-1364)
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانی
محمّدباقر بهشتی
1
(دانشیار و عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه تبریز)
محمد حسن خیرآور
2
(کارشناس ارشد مدیریت بازرگانی(MBA) و دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد دانشگاه مدیترانه شرقی)
محمد حسن قزوینیان
3
(کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی – کارشناس مشاوره و تحقیق سازمان مدیریت صنعتی آذربایجان)
کلید واژه: کارآفرینی, بیکاری, آزمون علیّت هیسائو,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه کارآفرینی به عنوان ابزار مهم تولید شغل و کاهش میزان بیکاری نزد کارشناسان و سیاستگذاران کشوراهمیتی فزاینده یافته است. در خصوص چگونگی رابطه مذکور، ابهامات بسیاری در کشورهای در حال توسعه ظهور یافته است. نتایج حاصل ازمطالعات گروهی از اقتصاددانان نشانگر رابطه مثبت بین بیکاری و کارآفرینی است. به عبارت دیگراین عده مطرح می سازند بالا رفتن نرخ بیکاری منجر به افزایش کارافرینی می گردد. حال آنکه برخی دیگر رابطه عکس بین این دو متغیر را مطرح می سازند و مستنداً بیان می دارند که افزایش فعالیتهای کارافرینی، نرخ بیکاری را کاهش می دهد. هدف از این مقاله، بررسی رابطه علّی بین کارآفرینی - به مفهوم ایجاد کسب و کارهای جدید- در صنعت ایران و نرخ بیکاری می باشد. در این راستا، آزمون علیت هیسائو برای بررسی رابطه علی بین نرخ بیکاری و کارآفرینی در بخش صنعت کشور به کار گرفته شده است. نتایج این مقاله حاکی از آن است که در بخش صنعت کشور رابطه علی یک طرفه از کارآفرینی به نرخ بیکاری وجود دارد. طبقه بندی JEL: L11, M13
Today, entrepreneurship is increasingly considered as an important tool of employment creation and unemployment reduction by economists and policymakers. Regarding the quality of this relationship, many ambiguities have become apparent in developed countries. Some studies indicate that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship. In other words, this group of studies states that any increase in unemployment will lead to increase in entrepreneurial activities. However, other studies support the presence of a negative relationship between variables and state that any increase in entrepreneurial activities will reduce the unemployment rate. This paper investigates the relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship in the manufacturing sector of the country. The empirical results indicate the existence of one distinct relationship between these two variables in which entrepreneurship negatively affects unemployment. JEL Ranking: L11, M13
Acs, Zoltan J., and David B. Audretsch,(2003), Innovation and Technological Change, in: Z.J. Acs and D.B. Audretsch (eds.), Handbook of Entrepreneurship Research, Boston/Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 55-79.
Acs, Z., Arenius, P., Hay, M. and Minniti, M.,(2005), Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 2004 Executive Report, London, UK: London Business School and Wellesley, MA: Babson College.
Acs, Z., Audretsch, D., Braunerhjelm, P. and Carlsson, B. (2003), “The Missing Link: The Knowledge Filter, Entrepreneurship and Endogenous Growth”, Working Paper, Center for Economic Policy Research, Stockholm.
Aidis, R. and Estrin, S., “Weak Institutions, Weak Ties and Low Levels of Productive Entrepreneurship in Russia: An Exploration”, Working Paper, SSEES, University College London, UK.
Audretsch, D. and Fritsch, M.,(1994), The Geography of Firm Births in Germany, Regional Studies, 28 (4), 359-365.
Audretsch, D., Grilo, I. and Thurik, R.,(2007), Handbook of Research in Entrepreneurship Policy, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, US: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
Audretsch, D. and Keilbach, M.,(2004), Entrepreneurship Capital and Economic Performance, Re-gional Studies 38, 949-959.
Audretsch, D. B. and Keilbach, M. (2001), “Entrepreneurship Capital, determinants and impact on regional economic performance”, Discussion papers on entrepreneurship, growth and public policy , Group Entrepreneurship, Max Planck Institute of Economics.
Audretsch, D. and Thurik, R.,(2001), What is New about the New Economy: Sources of Growth in the Managed and Entrepreneurial Economies, Industrial and Corporate Change 10 (1), 267-315.
Audretsch, D., Thurik R., Verheul, I. and Wennekers, S.,(2002), Entrepreneurship: De-terminants and Policy in a European-US Comparison, Boston/Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publish-ers.
Baptista, R. and Preto, M.T.,(2006), “The Dynamics of Causality between Entrepreneurship and Employment”, IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 66-70.
Bhaumik, S.K, Estrin, S. and Meyer, M. (2004), “Determinants of Employment Growth at MNEs: Evidence from Egypt, India, South Africa and Vietnam” IZA DP No. 1272.
Blanchflower, D.,(2000), Self-employment in OECD countries, Labour Economics 7, 471-505.
Blanchflower, D. and Bruce Meyer, 1994, A Longitudinal Analysis of Young Entrepreneurs in Aus-tralia and the United States, Small Business Economics 6 (1), 1-20.
Birch, D.L. (1979), “The job generation process”, Cambridge, MA, MIT Program on Neighborhood and Regional Change, Final report to the Economic Development Administration (mimeo).
Birch, D.L. (1987) “Job Generation in America”, New York.
Birch, D.L. (1979), “The Job Generation Process: Final Report to Economic Development”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Program on Neighborhood and Regional Change.
Brock,W.A. and Evans,D.S. (1989), ”Small Business Economics” , 1.no 17-20.
Brown, C., et al. (1990), “Employers: Large and Small”, Cambridge: Harvard University Press
Bondonio, D. (2004), “Do business incentives increase employment in declining areas? Mean impacts versus impacts by degrees of economic distress”, XIX National Conference of Labour Economics, Modena, Italy.
Carree, M.,(2002), Does Unemployment Affect the Number of Establishments? A Regional Analysis for U.S. States, Regional Studies 36, 389-398.
Carree, M., André van S., Thurik, R. and Wennekers, S.,(2002), Economic Development and Business Ownership: An Analysis Using Data of 23 OECD Countries in the Period 1976-1996, Small Business Economics 19 (3), 271-290.
Carree, M., André van S., Thurik R. and Wennekers, S.,(2007), The Relationship between Eco-nomic Development and Business Ownership Revisited, Entrepreneurship and Regional Development 19 (3), 281-291.
Audretsch, D. and Acs, J., Handbook of Entrepreneurship Research, Boston/Dordrecht: Klu-wer Academic Publishers, 437-471.
Carree. M. and Thurik, R.,(2007), The Lag Structure of the Impact of Business Ownership on Economic Growth in OECD Countries, Small Business Economics, forthcoming.
Dunne, T., Roberts, M. and Samuelson, L.,(1988), Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries, RAND Journal of Economics 19, 495-515.
Dunne, T., Roberts, M. and Samuelson, L.,(1989), The Growth and Failure of US Manufac-turing Plants, Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, 671-698.
Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time series. Wiley, New York.
Evans, D.,(1987),b, Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth, Journal of Political Economy 95 (4), 657-674.
Evans, D. and Leighton, L.,(1989), The Determinants of Changes in U.S. Self-Employment, 1968-1987, Small Business Economics 1 (2), 111-120.
Evans, D. and Leighton, L.,(1990), Small Business Formation by Unemployed and Employed Workers, Small Business Economics 2 (4), 319-330.
Freytag, A. and Thurik. R,.(2006),: Entrepreneurship and its determinants in a cross-country setting”, Prepared for: Journal of Evolutionary Economics (2007).
Garofoli, G.,(1994), New Firm Formation and Regional Development: The Italian Case, Regional Studies 28 (4), 381-394.
Geroski, P.,(1989), Entry, Innovation, and Productivity Growth, Review of Economics and Statistics 71, 572-578.
Geroski, P.,(1995), What Do We Know About Entry? International Journal of Industrial Organiza-tion 13, 421- 440.
Grilo, I.. and Jésus-Maria Irigoyen,(2006), Entrepreneurship in the EU: to Wish and Not to Be, Small Business Economics 26 (4), 305-318.
Grilo, I. and Roy Thurik,(2005), Entrepreneurial Engagement Levels in the European Union, Interna-tional Journal of Entrepreneurship Education 3 (2), 143-168.
Hall, B.,(1987), the Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector, Journal of Industrial Economics 35, June, 583-605.
Hamilton, R.,(1989), Unemployment and Business Formation Rates: Reconciling Time Series and Cross Section Evidence, Environment and Planning 21, 249-255.
Hart, P. and Oulton, N.,(1999), Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation, International Journal of the Econom-ics of Business 6, 149-164.
Highfield, R. and Smiley, R.,(1987), New Business Starts and Economic Activity: An Empirical Inves-tigation, International Journal of Industrial Organization 5, 51-66.
Hurst, E. and Lusardi, A., 2004, Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth and Entrepreneurship, Journal of Political Economy 112 (2), 319-347.
Johansson, E., 2000, Self-Employment and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Finland, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 102, 123-134.
Kaufman, A. Merenda, M. and wood, C. (1996), “Corporate Downsizing and the Rise of 'Problem-solving Suppliers: the Case of Hadco Corporation”, Industrial and Corporate Changes, Volume 5, Number3, pp 723-759.
Kitson, M., and Wilkinson, F., “The economics of New Labour: policy and performance”, Cambridge Journal of Economics 2007, 31, pp 805–816.
Haftendorn, K. and Salzano, C., 2004, “Facilitating Youth Entrepreneurship”, SEED WORKING PAPER No. 59, International Labour Office.
Klomp, L., Santarelli, E., and Thurik, R., 2006, Gibrat's Law: an Overview of the Empirical Litera-ture, in E. Santarelli (ed.), Entrepreneurship, Growth, and Innovation: the Dynamics of Firms and In-dustries: International Studies in Entrepreneurship, Berlin: Springer Science, 41-73.
Layard, R., Nickell, S. and Jackman, R. (1991) “Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market”, OUP, Oxford.
Lin, Z., Manser, M. And Picot, G., 1998, The Role of Self-Employment in Job Creation in Canada and the U.S., OECD-CERF-CILN International Conference on Self-Employment, Burling-ton, Ontario, Canada.
Nelson, C. And Plosser, C., 1982, “Trends and random Walks in macroeconomic time series”. J. Monetary Economics 10, PP 139-162.
Nickell, S., 1996, Competition and Corporate Performance, Journal of Political Economy 104, 724-746.
Nickell, S., Nicolitsas and Dryden, N., 1997, What Makes Firms Perform Well? European Economic Review 41, 783-796.
North D., and Smallbone, D. (1995) ‘Employment Generation and Small Business Growth in Different Geographical Environments’, in F. Chittenden.
Oxenfeldt, A., 1943, New Firms and Free Enterprise, Washington, D.C.: American Council on Public Af-fairs.
Parker, S., 2004, the Economics of Self-Employment and Entrepreneurship, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Pfeiffer, F. And Reize, F., 2000, Business Start-ups by the Unemployed-an Econometric Analysis Based on Firm Data, Labour Economics 7 (5), 629-663.
Revesz, J., Lattimore, R., (1997), “Small Business Employment”, Industry Commission, Staff Research Paper, Industry Commission, Canberra, August, Australia.
Reynolds, P., Miller, B. and Maki, W., 1995, Explaining Regional Variation in Business Births and Deaths: U.S. 1976-1988, Small Business Economics 7 (5), 389-707. Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-089 20
Reynolds, P., Storey, D., and Westhead, P., 1994, Cross-National Comparisons of the Variation in New Firm Formation Rates, Regional Studies 28 (4), 443-456.
Smallbone, D., (2002), “Targeted Support for High Growth Start-ups: The Experience with the High Growth Start-up Program in England”, Scott Policy Seminar, England.
Smallbone, D. and North, D. (1998), “Employment Generation in Manufacturing SMEs in Contrasting External Conditions”, Centre For Enterprise and Economic Development Research, Middlesex University.
Stel, A., Carree, M., and Thurik, R., 2005, the Effect of Entrepreneurial Activity on National Economic Growth, Small Business Economics 24 (3), 311-321.
Stel, A., and Suddle, K., 2007, The Impact of New Firm Formation on Regional Development in the Netherlands, Small Business Economics, forthcoming.
Storey, D., 1991, the Birth of New Firms – Does Unemployment Matter? A Review of the Evi-dence, Small Business Economics 3 (3), 167-178.
Sutton, J., 1997, Gibrat’s Legacy, Journal of Economic Literature 35, 40-59.
Thurik, R., Carree, M., Stel. A. and Audretsch, D., 2007, “Does Self-Employment reduce Unemployment?”, Jena Economic Research Papers.
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Acs, Zoltan J., and David B. Audretsch,(2003), Innovation and Technological Change, in: Z.J. Acs and D.B. Audretsch (eds.), Handbook of Entrepreneurship Research, Boston/Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 55-79.
Acs, Z., Arenius, P., Hay, M. and Minniti, M.,(2005), Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 2004 Executive Report, London, UK: London Business School and Wellesley, MA: Babson College.
Acs, Z., Audretsch, D., Braunerhjelm, P. and Carlsson, B. (2003), “The Missing Link: The Knowledge Filter, Entrepreneurship and Endogenous Growth”, Working Paper, Center for Economic Policy Research, Stockholm.
Aidis, R. and Estrin, S., “Weak Institutions, Weak Ties and Low Levels of Productive Entrepreneurship in Russia: An Exploration”, Working Paper, SSEES, University College London, UK.
Audretsch, D. and Fritsch, M.,(1994), The Geography of Firm Births in Germany, Regional Studies, 28 (4), 359-365.
Audretsch, D., Grilo, I. and Thurik, R.,(2007), Handbook of Research in Entrepreneurship Policy, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, US: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
Audretsch, D. and Keilbach, M.,(2004), Entrepreneurship Capital and Economic Performance, Re-gional Studies 38, 949-959.
Audretsch, D. B. and Keilbach, M. (2001), “Entrepreneurship Capital, determinants and impact on regional economic performance”, Discussion papers on entrepreneurship, growth and public policy , Group Entrepreneurship, Max Planck Institute of Economics.
Audretsch, D. and Thurik, R.,(2001), What is New about the New Economy: Sources of Growth in the Managed and Entrepreneurial Economies, Industrial and Corporate Change 10 (1), 267-315.
Audretsch, D., Thurik R., Verheul, I. and Wennekers, S.,(2002), Entrepreneurship: De-terminants and Policy in a European-US Comparison, Boston/Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publish-ers.
Baptista, R. and Preto, M.T.,(2006), “The Dynamics of Causality between Entrepreneurship and Employment”, IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 66-70.
Bhaumik, S.K, Estrin, S. and Meyer, M. (2004), “Determinants of Employment Growth at MNEs: Evidence from Egypt, India, South Africa and Vietnam” IZA DP No. 1272.
Blanchflower, D.,(2000), Self-employment in OECD countries, Labour Economics 7, 471-505.
Blanchflower, D. and Bruce Meyer, 1994, A Longitudinal Analysis of Young Entrepreneurs in Aus-tralia and the United States, Small Business Economics 6 (1), 1-20.
Birch, D.L. (1979), “The job generation process”, Cambridge, MA, MIT Program on Neighborhood and Regional Change, Final report to the Economic Development Administration (mimeo).
Birch, D.L. (1987) “Job Generation in America”, New York.
Birch, D.L. (1979), “The Job Generation Process: Final Report to Economic Development”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Program on Neighborhood and Regional Change.
Brock,W.A. and Evans,D.S. (1989), ”Small Business Economics” , 1.no 17-20.
Brown, C., et al. (1990), “Employers: Large and Small”, Cambridge: Harvard University Press
Bondonio, D. (2004), “Do business incentives increase employment in declining areas? Mean impacts versus impacts by degrees of economic distress”, XIX National Conference of Labour Economics, Modena, Italy.
Carree, M.,(2002), Does Unemployment Affect the Number of Establishments? A Regional Analysis for U.S. States, Regional Studies 36, 389-398.
Carree, M., André van S., Thurik, R. and Wennekers, S.,(2002), Economic Development and Business Ownership: An Analysis Using Data of 23 OECD Countries in the Period 1976-1996, Small Business Economics 19 (3), 271-290.
Carree, M., André van S., Thurik R. and Wennekers, S.,(2007), The Relationship between Eco-nomic Development and Business Ownership Revisited, Entrepreneurship and Regional Development 19 (3), 281-291.
Audretsch, D. and Acs, J., Handbook of Entrepreneurship Research, Boston/Dordrecht: Klu-wer Academic Publishers, 437-471.
Carree. M. and Thurik, R.,(2007), The Lag Structure of the Impact of Business Ownership on Economic Growth in OECD Countries, Small Business Economics, forthcoming.
Dunne, T., Roberts, M. and Samuelson, L.,(1988), Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries, RAND Journal of Economics 19, 495-515.
Dunne, T., Roberts, M. and Samuelson, L.,(1989), The Growth and Failure of US Manufac-turing Plants, Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, 671-698.
Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time series. Wiley, New York.
Evans, D.,(1987),b, Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth, Journal of Political Economy 95 (4), 657-674.
Evans, D. and Leighton, L.,(1989), The Determinants of Changes in U.S. Self-Employment, 1968-1987, Small Business Economics 1 (2), 111-120.
Evans, D. and Leighton, L.,(1990), Small Business Formation by Unemployed and Employed Workers, Small Business Economics 2 (4), 319-330.
Freytag, A. and Thurik. R,.(2006),: Entrepreneurship and its determinants in a cross-country setting”, Prepared for: Journal of Evolutionary Economics (2007).
Garofoli, G.,(1994), New Firm Formation and Regional Development: The Italian Case, Regional Studies 28 (4), 381-394.
Geroski, P.,(1989), Entry, Innovation, and Productivity Growth, Review of Economics and Statistics 71, 572-578.
Geroski, P.,(1995), What Do We Know About Entry? International Journal of Industrial Organiza-tion 13, 421- 440.
Grilo, I.. and Jésus-Maria Irigoyen,(2006), Entrepreneurship in the EU: to Wish and Not to Be, Small Business Economics 26 (4), 305-318.
Grilo, I. and Roy Thurik,(2005), Entrepreneurial Engagement Levels in the European Union, Interna-tional Journal of Entrepreneurship Education 3 (2), 143-168.
Hall, B.,(1987), the Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector, Journal of Industrial Economics 35, June, 583-605.
Hamilton, R.,(1989), Unemployment and Business Formation Rates: Reconciling Time Series and Cross Section Evidence, Environment and Planning 21, 249-255.
Hart, P. and Oulton, N.,(1999), Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation, International Journal of the Econom-ics of Business 6, 149-164.
Highfield, R. and Smiley, R.,(1987), New Business Starts and Economic Activity: An Empirical Inves-tigation, International Journal of Industrial Organization 5, 51-66.
Hurst, E. and Lusardi, A., 2004, Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth and Entrepreneurship, Journal of Political Economy 112 (2), 319-347.
Johansson, E., 2000, Self-Employment and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Finland, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 102, 123-134.
Kaufman, A. Merenda, M. and wood, C. (1996), “Corporate Downsizing and the Rise of 'Problem-solving Suppliers: the Case of Hadco Corporation”, Industrial and Corporate Changes, Volume 5, Number3, pp 723-759.
Kitson, M., and Wilkinson, F., “The economics of New Labour: policy and performance”, Cambridge Journal of Economics 2007, 31, pp 805–816.
Haftendorn, K. and Salzano, C., 2004, “Facilitating Youth Entrepreneurship”, SEED WORKING PAPER No. 59, International Labour Office.
Klomp, L., Santarelli, E., and Thurik, R., 2006, Gibrat's Law: an Overview of the Empirical Litera-ture, in E. Santarelli (ed.), Entrepreneurship, Growth, and Innovation: the Dynamics of Firms and In-dustries: International Studies in Entrepreneurship, Berlin: Springer Science, 41-73.
Layard, R., Nickell, S. and Jackman, R. (1991) “Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market”, OUP, Oxford.
Lin, Z., Manser, M. And Picot, G., 1998, The Role of Self-Employment in Job Creation in Canada and the U.S., OECD-CERF-CILN International Conference on Self-Employment, Burling-ton, Ontario, Canada.
Nelson, C. And Plosser, C., 1982, “Trends and random Walks in macroeconomic time series”. J. Monetary Economics 10, PP 139-162.
Nickell, S., 1996, Competition and Corporate Performance, Journal of Political Economy 104, 724-746.
Nickell, S., Nicolitsas and Dryden, N., 1997, What Makes Firms Perform Well? European Economic Review 41, 783-796.
North D., and Smallbone, D. (1995) ‘Employment Generation and Small Business Growth in Different Geographical Environments’, in F. Chittenden.
Oxenfeldt, A., 1943, New Firms and Free Enterprise, Washington, D.C.: American Council on Public Af-fairs.
Parker, S., 2004, the Economics of Self-Employment and Entrepreneurship, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Pfeiffer, F. And Reize, F., 2000, Business Start-ups by the Unemployed-an Econometric Analysis Based on Firm Data, Labour Economics 7 (5), 629-663.
Revesz, J., Lattimore, R., (1997), “Small Business Employment”, Industry Commission, Staff Research Paper, Industry Commission, Canberra, August, Australia.
Reynolds, P., Miller, B. and Maki, W., 1995, Explaining Regional Variation in Business Births and Deaths: U.S. 1976-1988, Small Business Economics 7 (5), 389-707. Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-089 20
Reynolds, P., Storey, D., and Westhead, P., 1994, Cross-National Comparisons of the Variation in New Firm Formation Rates, Regional Studies 28 (4), 443-456.
Smallbone, D., (2002), “Targeted Support for High Growth Start-ups: The Experience with the High Growth Start-up Program in England”, Scott Policy Seminar, England.
Smallbone, D. and North, D. (1998), “Employment Generation in Manufacturing SMEs in Contrasting External Conditions”, Centre For Enterprise and Economic Development Research, Middlesex University.
Stel, A., Carree, M., and Thurik, R., 2005, the Effect of Entrepreneurial Activity on National Economic Growth, Small Business Economics 24 (3), 311-321.
Stel, A., and Suddle, K., 2007, The Impact of New Firm Formation on Regional Development in the Netherlands, Small Business Economics, forthcoming.
Storey, D., 1991, the Birth of New Firms – Does Unemployment Matter? A Review of the Evi-dence, Small Business Economics 3 (3), 167-178.
Sutton, J., 1997, Gibrat’s Legacy, Journal of Economic Literature 35, 40-59.
Thurik, R., Carree, M., Stel. A. and Audretsch, D., 2007, “Does Self-Employment reduce Unemployment?”, Jena Economic Research Papers.
