The facility interest rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. The bank facility interest rate is associated with other macro-economic variables, one of which is the bank deposit interest rate. Using the time series data of the 1973-2017 period and the simultaneous equation system, the researchers estimated four equations using the three-stage least squares method.The result of estimation of the first equation indicates that there is a significant positive relationship between the bank deposit interest rate and the facility interest rate in the Iranian economy during this 45-year period, in that a decrease in the facility interest rate follows an increase in the inflation rate.The result of estimation of the second equation, in which the deposit interest rate is the dependent variable, shows that there is a significant positive relationship between the facility interest rate and the deposit interest rate.. The result of estimation of the third equation, where the inflation rate is the dependent variable, indicates that there is a significant positive relationship between the liquidity level and the inflation rate,The result of estimation of the last equation where the credit risk of banks is the dependent variable shows that there is a significant positive relationship between the facility interest rate and the credit risk. تفاصيل المقالة

The bank interest rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variable in each country economic. The purpose of this paper is find the relationship between the facility interest rate and three main variable of the money market.In Iran. this issue for equations the interest rate facility, the interest rate of deposit, inflation and credit risk utilizing the model simultaneous equation system and method three-stage least squares estimated. Results show that in this 32 year period the interest rate of the facility whit the interest rate on deposits is one of the most important macro- banking variable has a positive and significant relationship. So that with an increase in interest rate on deposits, the interest rate of facility also increases. It was also determined the interest rate of facility with inflation has a negative and significate relationship. This expresses with increasing inflation, the facility interest rate decreases. Because in Iran the rate of interest determined as an order, this result is not expected. The interest rate of facility and and credit risk have a positive and significant relationship, which represents it when the interest rate of facility increases, likelihood of non payment increased by borrowers. Also, inflation rate with liquidity and exchange rate has a positive relationship which is consistent reality. تفاصيل المقالة

چکیده در چند سال گذشته شاخص شرایط مالی یک شاخص مهم جهت مشخص کردن وضعیت هر کشور می باشد. شاخص شرایط مالی را میتوان به عنوان وضعیت فعلی متغیرهایی تعریف کرد که بر وضعین اینده اقتصاد تاثیر میگذارند. شاخص شرایط مالی شاخص خلاصه شده ای از متغیرهای مالی می باشد که برای پیش بینی وضعیت اقتصادی یک کشور موثر میباشد. هدف از مقاله حاضر، تعیین و محاسبه شاخص شرایط مالی برای کشور ایران با استفاده از روش تحلیل مولفه اساسی و داده های سری زمانی از سال1370-1399 می باشد. نتایج محاسبه شاخص شرایط مالی نشان می دهد که کانال اعتباری نسبت به سایر کانالها وزن بیشتری را به خود اختصاص داده و این امر اهمیت حجم اعتبارات در براورد شاخص شرایط مالی کشور را طی این مدت زمان در تحقیق نشان میدهد. پس از ان کانال دارایی یعنی شاخص قیمت سهام و شاخص مسکن بیشترین وزن را دارند. در این میان کانال نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره کمترین وزن را دارا میباشند. از این رو بانک مرکزی می تواند در سیاست گذاری پولی رویکرد اینده نگر را اتخاذ نماید به طوری که با تغییر رویکرد گذشته نگر خود در تصمیمات سیاست پولی درستترین عکس العمل را نشان دهد. تفاصيل المقالة