Identification and analysis of flow fluctuations in consequences of climate change is one of the most important factors in water resources management planning and this is vital especially in areas where large crowds are engaged in agriculture. Dez watershed, as an agricultural hub in the country, is one of areas that river flow fluctuations caused by climate change can affect a large population. In this study, by using gridded precipitation data APHRODITE and gridded temperature data set CHCN-CAMS, the IHACRES hydrological model was calibrated for the basin. Therefore, with introduction the temperature and precipitation under 2.6 Scenario of fifth report (CMIP5) to hydrologic model, flow fluctuations of watershed is simulation in future. result indicate that the temperature increase of 0.17-2 and precipitation changes of 3 to 75 percent in 2011-2035 period compared to the historical period (1983-2007). Runoff simulation result for future period showed that increases of 9.7 percent in long-term average annual runoff compared to the historical period. تفاصيل المقالة

One of the most important Limitation General Circulation Models , Large scale are being simulation of climatic variables. So should With Various method are downscaled, The ability to have identified a study area. Choose a suitable GCM model for the study area Very important role In the simulation parameter (precipitation) is intended for future. In this research of CMIP5 Models Contains BCC-CSM1.1.M , MPI-ESM-MR and MPI-ESM-LR was used In order to evaluate three models in the baseline period And determine the best model In order to fit into the study area .The first the Historical and Observation data are divided in to two Periodes: the first half (1983-1992) the period baseline and the second half(1994-2003) the period Validation. Index verification Mean absolute error and MAE Skill score Calculate between models and observation data in the evaluation period before and after Downscaling seasonal in Software Matlab For all Pixels Khuzestan Province. Results show that Befor applying the change factor method BCC-CSM1.1.M Model Error was Less than the other two models , and The other two were similar in terms of error rate. After applying change factor, BCC-CSM1.1.M Model the improvement was driven self and MPI-ESM-MR and MPI-ESM-LR models were ranked as second and third suitable models. So most trusted after the downscaling change factor method for the future under the scenario RCP4.5 for Khuzestan Province was assigned to BCC-CSM1.1.M model. تفاصيل المقالة

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World electricity production today is heavily dependent on water resources. Studies have shown that global warming and climate changes will have significant impacts on available water resources to produce hydroelectric power. Considering that the reservoir dam in the catchment area of Dez is simultaneously a producer of hydropower and supplier of water needed for agricultural land, the aim of this study is to estimate the quantitative effect of improving the efficiency of irrigation networks and reduce inputs to the dam on the amount of annual hydropower generation by the Dez dam power plant. For this purpose, with the integrated simulation of the Dez basin to Bandeghir, the effects of improving the efficiency of 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent, as well as decreasing the river inputs at 5 and 10 percent in two short- and long horizons, were studied. The results of this study showed that in the long run, as a result of the increased demand and the increase of hydraulic structures that are now at the justification stage, the amount of hydropower generation is reduced by about 115 GWh. The results showed that improving the efficiency can increase the amount of hydropower generation between 2 and 6 GWh per year. The production of hydroelectricity was highly dependent on the Dez River inputs, so that in the scenarios, a sudden drop in hydro-energy production occurred and the amount of it decreased by 5 and 10 percent, by 140 and 296 GWh, respectively. تفاصيل المقالة