Factors Affecting Supply of Iranian Pistachio Export with Emphasis on the Relative Price Fluctuations
Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics Research
H. محمدی
1
(استادیار، عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.)
F. سخی هانی
2
(کارشناس ارشد اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد)
Keywords: GARCH, Pistachio export supply, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Error Correction model (ECM), price volatility,
Abstract :
Pistachio is one of the main Iranian non oil exports in that is affected by various factors, including fluctuations in the relative Prices. This study examines the factors affecting supply of pistachio exports for period of 1982-2011. In this study, several symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models were used for determining the impacts of price volatility on pistachio export. Then, pistachio export function was estimated using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Corrected Models (ECM) for realizing long run and short run relations among variables. The results shows that the most appropriate GARCH model to examine the volatility of the price of pistachio export supply is EGARCH model that in this model, price volatility has a negative, asymmetric and significant impact on pistachio export and this variable in long run and short run, has negative and significant impact on supply of pistachio export. Other variables such as domestic production of pistachio, revenue from oil export and real foreign exchange rate have their expected signs on pistachio export. It is suggested that in formulation of trade policies of pistachio, the volatility of the price should be noted and avoid negative shocks to pistachio export supply.
_||_
